Welcome to Part 2 of the ACC Mailbag with Brendan Marks, Grace Rayner, and Manny Navarro.
Thank you for your great question. Part 1, which took place on Friday, focused on actual soccer. Today, we focused primarily on off-field issues that dominate the conversation.
What will happen to the ACC if FSU and Clemson both announce this summer that they will leave the conference effective June 30, 2025? — Todd K.
Before we get into all these questions about departures and realignment, let me declare that Chris Vannini’s ACC vs. FSU and Clemson story needs to be read for context.
I believe the official date for Clemson and FSU to notify the ACC of their plans to depart for the 2025 season will be August 15th of this year. In other words, it will come down to some sort of resolution in court regarding the granting of rights. In that case (unlikely considering the impact it could have on not only the ACC but all college football conferences), or the school and league reaching an out-of-court settlement regarding the exit fee (more likely). If it’s the latter and FSU and Clemson part ways, ESPN will wisely decide in February to not receive an ACC TV package until 2036. That would put the ACC in Pac-12 territory and force them into cheaper TV deals starting in 2027. (Without the two megastars) Or the league could directly disband, with some teams eventually fleeing to the Big 12 or forming a new league.
even deeper
ACC vs. Florida State and Clemson: Untangling realignment clash in court
My guess is that a group of ACC schools that didn’t make it to the SEC or the Big 10 (or the Big 12, which could end up winning here if they can get some of the more desirable ACC teams) will unite in the SEC. I’m sure you’d like to. In order to remain “mid-tier,” they have some form of cheaper television contract. We can sit here and argue about which school is which, but feelings may get hurt. Or you can simply look at TV ratings and TV markets over the past few years and put two and two together. In any case, not everyone will receive an invitation to the Big 2 or Super League. Even if FSU or Clemson have to spend a few years in purgatory (Big 12) to reach the SEC or Big 10, they will do so to get out of having to stay in the ACC until 2036.
I don’t see a 24-team Big Ten or a 24-team SEC in the future. Remember, the SEC’s television contract with ESPN runs through 2033-2034, and the Big Ten’s contracts with CBS, NBC and FOX run through 2029-30. With such a huge economic advantage in college football, there is no incentive for schools in these leagues to add more schools — signing top “free agent” schools like FSU and Clemson and other schools. As long as they don’t fight (like North Carolina) they value it. This essentially forces other ACC programs to come up with solutions to stay relevant and somehow fund their athletic programs. Therefore, ACC does not collapse completely. The Pac-12 must have learned something through its failures. — Navarro
What role does North Carolina politics play in the conference realignment with UNC and North Carolina State? And will this keep the schools from separating, or will one or both schools Should both schools decide to leave the ACC, should they have a landing site? — Isaiah N.
Simply put, it’s complicated. Essentially, the North Carolina Legislature is trying to make sense of what happened in California two summers ago, when UCLA suddenly transitioned from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, seemingly blindsided state leaders. And he said, “We’re going to make sure that something like this doesn’t happen.”
So in April, the UNC Board of Governors, which oversees the North Carolina system that includes North Carolina State and UNC-Chapel Hill, passed a policy change. State universities are currently required to notify the system president before making conference changes, including providing a funding plan for the change. The system president can approve or reject the plan. If the president rejects it, the president of the proposing university must come up with a new plan. And even if the system president approves it, the plan goes to the larger board for a vote… and if it doesn’t reach the necessary approvals there, it’s still kicked back.
Effectively, the new policy will make it more difficult for schools in the UNC system to change conferences. But importantly, there’s nothing explicitly said about the Wolfpack and Tar Heels remaining in the same conference.
However, that doesn’t mean the idea is far from your mind. Last year, North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland) told reporters that “Carolina and the state universities should be in the same conference…I would hate to see them split into separate conferences. “There will be a lot of resistance,” he said. (Mr. Moore is a 1992 graduate of North Carolina State University.) The problem is that from a realignment perspective, North Carolina State, with its national brand, strong men’s basketball, and strong academic reputation, is more valuable than North Carolina State University. It is widely considered to be an additional university. In fact, some industry experts believe that North Carolina is the only ACC brand that adds value to the SEC or Big Ten because it is in a state that (unlike Florida State and Clemson) is not currently affiliated with either league. I think there are still some. So where does that leave NC State if North Carolina State is poached by one of the Big 2 leagues? So what will the rivalry be between these two schools? And on a larger level, the ACC. Where does that leave us?
All of these are overstatements that show that many influential people in the state do not want UNC and NC State to split. Case in point: This week, another bill was introduced in the state Legislature that would require UNC and North Carolina to:
1. Play at either East Carolina, Charlotte, or Appalachian State every year, and play at all three both home and away in six years.
2. We play against each other at home or away every year.
It is too early to know at this point what support there will be for this bill. But looking at the overall movement of Congress so far, it’s clear that separating the two rivals is the highest possible priority. — Mark
If you were appointed president of the ACC today and were also given a time machine, what would you go back in time and change to improve the current state of the conference in 2024? How does it compare to a conference? — Ethan D.
Aside from forcing Notre Dame to join the ACC (because the ACC needs Notre Dame more than the Irish need the ACC, everyone knows that never happened) ), I think I would have done everything in my power to convince the conference to change and accept that its future should be in football.
As we all know, the ACC is a great basketball conference. But soccer is about making money. For example, starting in 2005, I met directly with every ACC coach, president, and athletic director to convince them that football recruiting would be the most important area of investment over the next decade and beyond. I told them there was a rumor out there that our pesky neighborhood SEC was going a bit ridiculously hard on recruiting, but ACC teams would have to do the same. They will need to invest more in their football staff. Let’s hire more people. Strengthen recruitment and evaluation departments. Please strengthen your facilities. Place a slide and a barber shop in the building. Learn more teen lingo than ever before and help 16-year-olds relate to it.
Clemson and Florida State listened, and it will pay off in the 2010s. But I hope the rest of the league does the same and makes it their mission to prove that the ACC is more than just a one-dimensional league. I want them to be interested in everything the SEC does. — rayner
Which ACC teams will be in the Super League? In three years there will only be 32 teams. — Ursula D.
Clemson, the league’s best football powerhouse over the past decade, needs to be involved. The same goes for Florida State, which has had historic and recent football success. Second, North Carolina has the most attractive national brand in the ACC, and perhaps more importantly, it would give a foothold to states currently absent from this hypothetical Super League. .
And I just want to say these three things. Controversial? perhaps. But what’s the incentive for Super League to add a third (private) program from the same state when FSU and Florida State are already in both? The other two’s levels of success over the past 20 years? Is there anything quite comparable to that? You also have to consider that the SEC and Big Ten contribute to 20-30 of these teams, so the room is limited. — Mark
How many ACC teams will be in the CFP this year? How excited are you about the new playoff format? — Brett W.
It took a little convincing at first that expanding the College Football Playoff was worth it, but after Florida State was robbed last season, even if you think the same few teams will continue to win, more I’m excited to see the team have a chance. As far as who could be in the ACC this year, I’m going with the two teams most likely to compete for the league title: Clemson and Florida State. If Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik and former Clemson and current FSU quarterback DJ Uiagalelei hit their stride, we could be in for a treat.
On the other hand, when I polled the group, Manny gave a more scathing answer.
“It’s going to be Miami and FSU,” he said. “In the last year of the ACC as we know it. Book it. Finally.” — Rayner
Is there a competitive advantage to Clemson’s approach to the portal? I compare the Tigers to Colorado. The latter is a revolving door with men always in the hot seat. Clemson can throw this. “Come here and we’ll develop you. You don’t have to look over your shoulder. Work your reps and you’ll get the snaps.” That’s what a lot of kids, especially Clemson, have adopted. You have to imagine it’s appealing to the type of kids who do. — Hunter W.
Great point, Hunter. Clemson’s recruiting efforts need to help tell high school football players, “We’re looking for you, not a transfer. We’re looking for you.” If you come here, you won’t lose your position to an older player. ” However, it is completely unsustainable for Clemson to remain a non-player in the transfer portal and still compete for a national championship. It allows NBA, NFL, or MLB teams to use the draft only to replenish their rosters, allowing players entering their fourth or fifth seasons to become free agents. It’s like a declaration.
Every championship team needs veterans, and in college football, even special players are usually gone in their third year anyway. Dabo Swinney’s approach worked in the pre-portal era, when free agency wasn’t rampant. No more. He can’t replace a talented third-year player or his fourth-year player with a freshman and expect the freshman to play like her junior year or his senior year. Especially if they’re still losing players to the portal or the draft. There are too many holes to fill. — Navarro
Over the next few years, assuming FSU and Clemson find a way out, what are the chances of an ACC Western division featuring schools like California, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State, and perhaps Texas like Rice or UTSA? mosquito? — Michael H.
Wait, I love this idea. I don’t know how likely that is, but I don’t know if there will ever be another thing that surprises me in college football. Oregon and Washington State need a place to land anyway, and if Clemson and Florida rebound, the ACC should lean toward being completely free. Give us some Pac-12 After Dark vibes every hour of every day. — Rayner
(North Carolina vs. NC State and Clemson vs. Florida State Photo: Lance King, John Byram/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images)
