Donald Trump has spent much of the past year talking about his perfect vice presidential pick: someone who could easily take over as commander in chief if necessary and rival President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
“It has to be someone who can be a good president, and Biden doesn’t have that,” Trump said in an interview with conservative political commentator Hugh Hewitt in April.
But now, as the theater’s selection process draws to a close, his public comments suggest his thinking has changed and he is placing greater emphasis on political calculations.
Trump said Monday that his number one priority remains someone qualified to be president, then quickly added a second criterion: “someone who can help me get elected.”
Some supporters say Trump’s new focus on who can help him win may be a reflection of his uncertainty about who to choose. Trump has said he plans to announce his running mate before or during the Republican National Convention, which starts on Monday. Some aides question whether he will announce his nominee by then, in time for a campaign rally in western Pennsylvania on Saturday.
Two people who spoke separately with Trump this week said they got the impression he hadn’t made a decision yet. As of Friday morning, he hadn’t called any of the three front-runners to ask them for the job, according to two advisers who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal discussions.
When Trump previously said he was looking for a running mate who “would make a good president,” he was talking to advisers about how well this year’s voters knew both Trump and Biden — the idea being that in a race with such well-known candidates, there would be less need for a running mate to serve as a bridge to particular constituencies or battleground states.
This year, Trump’s three finalists are Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and each would bring different strengths and weaknesses to the table if Trump is still weighing their political profiles.
Vance is most likely to energize Trump’s conservative base but may also be the wealthiest man Democrats are attacking. Burgum, a wealthy two-term governor, may reassure pro-business Republicans but is less tested on the national stage. Rubio has proven popular with Latino voters but some in the party are skeptical of his ability under pressure.
Only a few years ago, Vance was one of Trump’s most scathing critics, with a long list of video clips used by Democrats to attack the former president. A relatively recent member of the “Make America Great Again” movement, Vance has a controversial record, including his support for a nationwide abortion ban proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham. Vance has sought to soften his message to align with Trump’s concerns that abortion policy is hurting Republicans electorally, but on his website he vows to “end abortion.”
Vance, 39, only ran for office last year and has the least political experience in his career, which could weaken Trump’s attacks that Harris is ill-prepared to fill in for Biden if necessary.
“JD has a lot of anti-Trump rhetoric that he could exploit,” said David Axelrod, a senior strategist for President Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. “It could position him in the most extreme corner of the party, and the natural question is whether he’s prepared for that.”
But Vance’s humble upbringing could appeal to Rust Belt voters who could decide the election, and his supporters see his youth as an advantage in a race that pits an 81-year-old incumbent against a 78-year-old challenger. Vance is the only candidate high or low on the list with a military background, and even his critics privately say he is often eloquent and persuasive on television — an issue of great importance to Trump.
“I think J.D. Vance is going to be the biggest threat to Kamala Harris if there is a vice presidential debate,” Ashley Etienne, Harris’ former communications director, told CNN last month.
Mr. Vance, a former venture capitalist and author, was a front-runner among powerful voices within Mr. Trump’s political base, many of whose supporters are combative commentators such as former New York City police officer turned pundit Dan Bongino, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and Mr. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr. has been enthusiastic about his father’s selection and criticized his father’s front-runners on a podcast this week, downplaying Burgum as a better choice to lead Energy and ramping up his conspiratorial rhetoric by saying Rubio could put his father at risk of impeachment.
He suggested that Republican senators would likely remove Trump from office if Rubio were to become president, suggesting that establishment Republicans in Congress would turn against his dissident father — a scenario that ignores the fact that Republican senators twice voted to acquit Trump in his impeachment trial.
Rubio has had the longest ties with Trump, dating back to their acrimonious 2016 presidential primaries when the two traded taunts repeatedly. Rubio struggled through some of his biggest moments, including his gaffe at President Barack Obama’s 2013 State of the Union address, and had to reassure conservatives after his role in a bipartisan immigration bill that year.
Still, the two men resolved their differences and became close friends during their stints in Washington. Mr. Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants — his father was a bartender and his mother a factory worker — and his personal background may appeal to Mr. Trump’s blue-collar supporters.
Rubio is the only Republican to be elected to three terms as a senator in Florida, a state that has declined in its status as a presidential battleground state. In that race, he performed well among Hispanic voters in the southeastern part of the state and among more conservative white voters in the panhandle. More Floridians voted for Rubio’s senate seat than voted for President Trump in the 2016 general election.
“Marco Rubio would be a great running mate,” Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., said on Fox Business on Wednesday. “He’s going to bring more Hispanics into the Republican Party and broaden the base. I think he’d be a great vice president.”
Burgum, a two-term governor of North Dakota, is the latest to join Trump’s ranks after his little-noticed run for president last year caught the former president’s attention.
“I actually like the governor and I have a lot of respect for him,” Trump told Newsmax after the first Republican presidential debate in August. “He has a lot of good qualities. He’s a quality person.”
But Trump has expressed concern that Burgum has signed one of the nation’s strictest abortion laws, even though he has pledged to oppose a nationwide abortion ban. Adding Burgum to the shortlist could help calm pro-business Republicans worried about Trump’s unpredictability, but he is little known on the national stage and has a relatively short track record.
Still, Burgum, a wealthy former corporate executive, has vigorously defended Trump on cable news shows and at campaign rallies, winning the support of key conservative figures. On Thursday, the editorial boards of The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post, both parts of the media empire controlled by conservative billionaire Rupert Murdoch, endorsed Burgum as the best choice for Trump.
Pete Hoekstra, the Republican chairman of the key battleground state of Michigan, this week lobbied for Burgum to be his running mate who “can help us win Michigan and other key Midwestern states.”
“He’s a problem solver,” Hoekstra said in a social media post, “and he has Midwest common sense.”
