Last week (April 4-5), US and EU officials convened the sixth Trade and Technical Council (TTC) in Leuven to revive post-Trump era discussions. Tensions between China and Russia, unresolved disputes and the possibility of a Republican returning to the White House have clouded the proceedings.
Looking back on three years of dialogue
advertisementThe two-day conference featured Digital, Trade and Internal Market Commissioners Margrethe Vestager, Valdis Dombrovskis and Thierry Breton, respectively, as well as U.S. Secretary of State and Commerce Antony Blinken and Gina Raimondo; I met with Trade Representative Katherine Tai. They reflected on the positive results from three years of technical working groups and biannual meetings, but there were no major new announcements.
The EU and the US have set a new standard in a joint risk-based approach to artificial intelligence (AI), setting benchmarks with defined objectives and drawing red lines that must not be crossed. He confirmed that he is working on building a dialogue between the US AI Safety Institute and the EU AI Secretariat. To make this technology more secure.
Other notable successes include establishing research collaborations on 6G communications and improving the digital skills of the workforce to enable AI.
“The TTC was invented because there were some difficulties communicating with your predecessors,” Brereton said, acknowledging that the TTC’s greatest success was symbolic in restoring relations with the United States. . Joe Biden’s arrival provided an opportunity for the EU, Breton said: “We managed to do it. We found the right channels to discuss and engage. We are the biggest and strongest alliance on the planet. Although the TTC hasn’t achieved any memorable breakthroughs, it has helped stop the escalation of tariffs between the EU and the US and reignited a stale dialogue.
This sixth and likely final forum left several issues unresolved that could prevent the US and EU from moving closer together. These include unpaid tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by the Trump administration and Biden’s Inflation Control Act (IRA), a government subsidy that disadvantages European industry.
China: Ghost of the Feast
Discussions about microchip production inevitably include considerations for China. “The Chinese government’s huge subsidies can lead to market distortions,” Vestager said at a press conference, justifying increased cooperation in sharing information on supply chain protection. The United States and the European Union have each invested billions of dollars in countermeasures through tipping laws that both blocs have implemented. Thierry Breton claimed that by securing the supply chain, the US and EU’s global semiconductor market share could reach 50% by 2030 from the current level of 8%. Currently, most of the chips are exported from China to the rest of the world. But for some, the plan lacks cooperation.
Although both countries have welcomed the swift and coordinated imposition of sanctions against Russia following the war against Ukraine, they have been slow to realize the extent to which China will displace Western actors in Russia and the speed at which the rival axis is evolving. Not yet. Since the beginning of the war, “unrestricted partnership” and trade exchanges between China and Russia have increased. The first takes advantage of low oil prices in Russia, which is subject to sanctions by other countries (50% of Russia’s oil is exported to China), while the latter They will be able to access goods such as cars and smartphones that have become difficult to obtain in Russia following the country’s withdrawal. According to Chinese customs data, in the past two years trade between Russia and China has surged by almost two-thirds (64%) to around 240 billion euros, taking China’s share of the Russian market from less than 10% to more than 50%. During this period of rapid increase. “Our trade is balanced and complementary in high technology, energy, scientific research and development. It’s very balanced,” President Vladimir Putin told US debate host Tucker in a recent interview. -Told Carlson.
Transatlantic trade, which accounts for 40% of global GDP and involves billions of dollars worth of goods traded every day, remains significantly larger than Sino-Russian trade. However, the latter is gradually narrowing the gap.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing today (April 9) to discuss their security partnership and jointly affirm their opposition to “hegemony and power politics.” [and] Oppose the monopolization of international affairs by a few countries. ”
At the EU level, distrust towards China is increasing. In September 2023, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen launched an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles on suspicion of market distortion. A few months later, in January 2024, the European Commission presented a plan to limit foreign investment in strategic cutting-edge technologies in Europe, with China of course in mind.
What will the Trade and Technology Council do next?
The elephant in the council room was that future itself. “The history of the TTC is one of growing this collaboration,” Antony Blinken said in his closing press conference, before adding, “This inspires us to continue this work.” Nevertheless, whether the Democrats will win the US elections in November remains up for debate, and the not-so-pro-EU Donald Trump could soon return to the White House.
“This strength must continue to be nurtured and developed, regardless of who is in the White House or Burlemont next year,” an EU official said, but that may be an expression of hope rather than hope.
