Russia is now trying to adapt in ways that are difficult for Ukraine to defend. The latest example is the use of glide bombs. This is an old ammunition, carrying up to half a ton of explosives, fitted with wings and a guidance system for flight over long distances with some accuracy. This would allow Russian jets to wait and fire outside the range of Ukrainian military anti-aircraft systems. In addition to cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones, Russia continues to attack Ukrainian cities on a daily basis.
Ukraine may be better prepared with the aid bill passed by the Senate (which is stalled in the House of Representatives) to provide $64 billion in military, economic and humanitarian aid. Ukraine needs more Patriot air defense system missile batteries to keep Russian aircraft and missiles at bay. Delivery of F-16 fighter jets is necessary to directly counter Russian aircraft. And in addition to artillery shells, they also need air defense ammunition, which is in short supply. The F-16 is expected to arrive later this year. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said over the weekend that 25 Patriot air defense systems with six to eight batteries are needed to protect the entire country. Currently, he only has 3 Patriot systems and his 2 backup launchers. Russia fires about six shells for every one fired by Ukraine.
Ukraine, too, is reeling from fatigue and loss among its fighters, a serious domestic problem for Mr. Zelensky that cannot be solved with money from the United States or its allies. When Russia invaded, he called for Ukrainian men over the age of 27 to protect the country’s future, but not men between the ages of 18 and 27. The median age of the Ukrainian military is in their 40s, and many of the older troops have been serving at combat bases since 2014. Tensions have left Ukraine’s infantry battered and defenseless, as evidenced by its recent withdrawal from the town of Avdiivka.
Zelenskyy signed a law lowering Ukraine’s minimum conscription age to 25, but he is reluctant to mobilize 500,000 troops as Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief had suggested. The bill, which expands the conditions governing who can be drafted into the military, has undergone thousands of amendments. The newspaper’s Isabel Khurshudian quoted a Western diplomat in Kiev as saying the president and parliament were playing politics over an unpopular bill. Russia has suffered even greater losses than Ukraine, but has four to six times more people. President Vladimir Putin has been able to act with little internal resistance and appears determined to keep up the pressure.
Ukraine’s military situation is not completely hopeless. It has greatly expanded the use of drones to destroy oil refineries hundreds of miles away inside Russian territory and maintained the Black Sea corridor for vital grain exports. But civilians face the potential for attrition on the battlefield while being exposed to a constant and terrifying barrage of Russian bombs, missiles and drones. Last weekend, the city of Kharkiv came under attack by Russian drones, which struck high-rise buildings twice in quick succession. It was a despicable “double tap” in which the initial explosion gathered first responders and killed the second responders. Limited air defenses can only do so much to stop these attacks.
Although Russia cannot overcome the incredible spirit of the Ukrainian people, this year may be the year in which Russia breaks through Ukraine’s tenuous boundaries. Indeed, Mr. Putin is counting on this, along with months of delays in the United States, and the return of former President Donald Trump, who urged House Republicans to withhold aid.
Each day the House adjournment intensifies the fight in Ukraine, reducing the chances of a positive outcome for the conflict even if aid from the United States eventually arrives. Mr Johnson is reportedly preparing a support package despite months of efforts to avoid alienating Mr Trump and his supporters. Time is running out for Ukraine. Eventually, reality must prevail among House Republicans—or all that remains for them is shame.
