Photos of Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Republican Steve Garvey are flashed during Schiff’s election night party in Los Angeles on March 5, 2024. Garvey’s promotion by Sif and his allies influenced other races.
California has not been a favorable environment for statewide Republicans for nearly two decades. That’s why no Republican campaign has spent millions of dollars on TV ads in more than a decade.
Well, until this year’s primaries. And it took independent spending from Democratic campaigns and their allies to make that happen.
More than $10 million was spent on ads attacking U.S. Senate candidate Steve Garvey. But they were thinly veiled endorsement ads targeted at Republican voters. The goal is to consolidate Republican votes for Garvey and force him into a November runoff election, allowing Rep. Adam Schiff to avoid a costly and competitive race against fellow Democrat Rep. Katie Porter. It was to do so.
And it worked – perhaps too well. Mr. Garvey secured the top spot in the U.S. Senate primary for part of the term and was almost tied with Mr. Schiff for the full term.
From the day Garvey announced his candidacy, no complicated sabermetrics were needed to understand this race. The math is easy and starts at 40%. This is California’s Republican electoral cap. Since 2014, no statewide candidate with an “R” next to their name has surpassed that number.
Also, since 2016, all Republican candidates statewide have received around 34% to 39% of the vote, which is close to their seats.
Early polls may have placed him lower, but the math will always catch up.
Republican, runoff election
Garvey’s performance in this election won’t matter much in November, but it will affect turnout among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents across the state, and could have an impact on other races as well. There is sex.
A post-election survey conducted for Capitol Weekly asked California primary voters which race listed on their ballots most felt compelled to vote. The Senate race was the biggest reason Republican Garvey voters didn’t vote for former President Donald Trump, but it was even more important to conservative independents, who make up nearly 60% of the vote.
In addition to the usual dynamics of low-turnout elections, if Mr. Garvey’s efforts increased the concentration of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, in the short term Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 1 and some Democrats It may have had a negative impact. But even that could work in favor of Democrats in November.
Some of the most closely contested legislative and congressional races were expected to produce two Democrats from large, high-spending fields. And on election night, many of these candidates found themselves, often completely unknown Republicans, in coveted spots in the general election.
We saw this in the shadow of Schiff’s congressional district. In the race to replace him, U.S. Rep. Laura Friedman and state Sen. Anthony Portantino are joined by other prominent Democrats, including former Los Angeles City Attorney Mike Feuer and actor Ben Savage. It was a close battle.
They spent millions of dollars competing for one spot in the general election, but the second place went to a relatively unknown Republican who spent $10,000 on a launch video and nothing else. It was Alex Balekian, who spent very little.
Democratic Party Outlook
Friedman, who finished first in Schiff’s district, saw a similar situation in his own legislative district, with four Democrats spending and one Republican who didn’t spending in the top two. I slipped in. A similar thing happened in Mr. Portantino’s Senate seat, where Yvonne Yu, who ran for governor in 2022, spent $3 million, losing second place to a Republican who spent less than 3% of that amount. removed from
In more than a dozen races, largely unknown Republicans have emerged victorious over candidates backed by multimillion-dollar campaigns and independent spending.
Newsom’s Proposition 1 ballot measure was also affected. It ultimately passed by less than a percentage point, but the result may have been closer than expected because more Republicans and conservative independents voted.
While individual Democrats in the state had their hopes of making it through November dashed, it’s true that Schiff’s play could end up being a big win for Democrats. The Golden State has seven of his highly competitive congressional districts. A close race in the US Senate that could have cost $100 million would not have helped the cause.
Additionally, as more Republicans participate in runoff elections for safe legislative and congressional districts, Democrats in these areas no longer have to spend money on costly intraparty fights, instead focusing on other can raise funds for the region.
Democrats can join me in denouncing Mr. Schiff for the next seven months with Mr. Garvey’s harsh baseball analogy, but also blaming him for harming Democrats across the state. It is not possible. Voter turnout in November will be so high that the same calculations that elected Garvey as general will certainly not elect him.
While that may not have been the goal, this political maneuvering by Schiff and his allies took a huge and costly distraction off the table and boosted Democrats’ prospects heading into November.
Paul Mitchell is vice president of Political Data, a California-based voter data company, and owner of Redistricting Partners. He wrote this column for his CalMatters.
