Past employment forecasts soar; be careful about stock market permanence forecasts – Amazon.co.jp (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Here’s what you need to know today to get the edge.

Featured Job Report

Click here for a larger version of the chart. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) represents the benchmark stock index S&P 500 (SPX).

Please note the following:

• This chart shows that the stock market has broken below the upward trend line.
• This chart shows that this was the perfect setting for yesterday’s stock market decline, when Israel went on high alert due to possible Iranian retaliation.
• Similar to their pattern, the MOMO crowd was buying stocks this morning based on a hope strategy ahead of the mother of all numbers, the jobs report.
• Employment data far exceeded expectations. Here are the details:
  • The consensus for non-agricultural employment was 303,000, compared to 200,000. This shows that the economy is doing well and many new jobs are being created. The majority of these jobs are low-level jobs such as hospitality jobs. Information technology employment remains weak as more workers are replaced by AI.
  • The consensus for private sector salaries in the non-agricultural sector was 232,000, compared to 160,000. This indicates that there is no need for a rate cut at this time.
  • The unemployment rate was 3.8% vs. consensus 3.8%. Unemployment rate remains low.
  • The average hourly rate was 0.3%, and the consensus was 0.3%. This indicates that it will be difficult to control inflation from this point forward.
  • The average weekly working hours was 34.4 vs. 34.3 by consensus.
• Although the stock market temporarily lost its range of gains, the Momo crowd actively bought the upside.
• Arora Report analysis says strong employment data makes it less likely that interest rates will be cut in June. Note that the MOMO gurus claim to know for sure that rate cuts will begin in June. You may remember that same momo guru was convinced that there would be six interest rate cuts starting in March this year. Obviously, the momo master was wrong. However, smart investors should understand that momo gurus are often wrong because they are not based on objective analysis. Their job is to persuade investors to buy stocks under the guise of analysis. In order to do their job, they must be permanable. Consider not listening to permabulls and permabears.
  • Smart investors should start with Arora’s second law of investing and trading. “No one knows for sure what will happen next in the market.” Follow Arora’s third law: “Making investment and trading decisions based on probability is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
• Based on historical data, the probability of a June interest rate cut has fallen to about 50%, according to Arora Report’s analysis. However, investors should keep in mind two facts:
  • There’s a lot of data between now and June that could change direction.
  • It’s clear that Mr. Powell is itching to cut rates. It’s not clear what Mr. Powell’s motives were. Some conservative analysts believe Mr. Powell wants to lower rates to help Biden’s re-election bid. President Trump has made it clear that he will not reappoint Powell.

7 epic money flows

In early trading, Apple (AAPL) has positive cash flows; Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ:Meta), Nvidia Inc. (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT).

In early trades, the flow of funds will be negative. Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG) and tesla company (NASDAQ:TSLA).

In the early trades, SPY has a positive flow of funds; Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Momo crowd and smart money in stocks

The momo crowd is actively buying stocks in early trading. Smart money is inactive in early trades.

Money

momo crowd is buying gold in early trades. Smart money is inactive in early trades.

For the long term, take a look at Gold and Silver valuations.

The most popular ETFs for gold are: SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD).The most popular ETFs for silver are iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV).

oil

The momo crowd is not active in early trades. Smart money is inactive in early trades.

For long-term use, please refer to the oil rating.

The most popular oil ETFs are US Oil ETF (Asuka: USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is limited in scope.

What to do now with the protective band

It’s important for investors to look forward, not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold existing good positions for the very long term. Based on your personal risk appetite, consider protection bands consisting of cash or Treasury bills, or short-term tactical trades, as well as short-to-medium-term hedges and short-term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the rise at the same time.

By adding cash to your hedge, you can determine your protective belt. High-bandwidth protection is suitable for older and conservative users. Low band protection is suitable for young and aggressive people. Without hedging, the total cash level would be higher than above, but significantly less than the cash and hedges combined.

Remember, if you don’t have enough cash, you won’t be able to take advantage of new opportunities in the future. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non-ETFs). Consider using a wider stop on the remaining quantity to give more room to high beta stocks. High beta stocks are stocks that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 portfolio

Probability-based risk-reward adjusted for inflation currently does not favor long-term strategic bond allocation.

Those who want to stick with a traditional 60% equity and 40% fixed income allocation may consider focusing only on high-quality bonds and bonds with a duration of 7 years or less. Those looking to add sophistication to their investments may consider using fixed income ETFs for tactical rather than strategic positions at this time.

Arora Reports is known for its accurate calls. Arora Report predicts the big rally in artificial intelligence before anyone else, a new bull market in 2023, a bear market in 2022, new highs in the stock market immediately after the virus infection, lows in 2020, virus in 2020 The fall of the DJIA is correctly called that the rally reached 30,000 people. When it was trading at 16,000, at the beginning of the huge bull market in 2009, and then during the financial collapse of 2008. Click here to sign up for free forever. Create a wealth newsletter.

This article was contributed by an unpaid external contributor. This does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.