One poll late last year found support for pro-choice measures in the state at 62 percent. The Biden campaign is elated at the chance to push abortion rights to the forefront in a state that Donald Trump won by less than 4 percentage points in 2020. The smart money still lies in Trump winning Florida, without which his path to the presidency would collapse, but keeping his policies in place. The state, with about 23 million people in the red column, will almost certainly depend on hundreds of thousands of Floridians voting for Trump. and Pro choice.
As we begin this debate, it’s worth considering how badly the Republican Party and the pro-life movement have lost since the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court decision. Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. beginning, Dobbs He contributed to the Democratic Party’s historically strong performance in the 2022 midterm elections. Careful academic research shows that abortion increased Republican support among independent voters by 4.5 percentage points in 2020. In 2022, this issue led to a 13% increase in Democratic voters.
The authors explain: “For decades, partisan voters had clear positions on abortion, but elected officials seemed to have little say on the issue. Roe vs. Wade Established a general constitutional right to abortion. ” In other words, abortion policy was separated from the electoral process. Dobbs It restored connectivity and led to a “realignment of priorities” among key constituencies. The result was a boost to Democratic candidates and denied Republicans a politically stable majority in the House.
Meanwhile, since then, Dobbs, pro-choice voters outnumbered voters in blue states like California (67 percent to 33 percent) and purple states like Michigan (57 percent to 43), as well as red states like Kansas (59 percent to 41). It won the referendum in each state. ), Ohio State (57-43), Montana State (53-47) and Kentucky (52-48). The arena of direct democracy has become an immense disaster for anti-abortion opponents. If Florida’s six-week ban survives, it will likely be because the state requires a 60 percent supermajority to amend its constitution.
Parties may also pay temporary electoral costs while securing lasting policy victories. Consider that Democrats passed Obamacare. They lost power in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections, but expanded health care subsidies remain in place seven election cycles later. Republican Congresses have succeeded in banning abortion in more than a dozen of the nation’s reddest states.But a report released last month by the Guttmacher Institute, an abortion rights advocacy group, found that the number of legal abortions in the United States is increased It increased by 10% from 2020 to 2023, exceeding 1 million people for the first time since 2012.
Guttmacher attributes some of this increase to interstate migration. States bordering states with abortion bans saw 37% more abortions than in 2020. The group also cites subsidies from “abortion funds.” Dobbs, and the increased availability of chemical abortion.how Dobbs It is uncertain whether America’s abortion curve will bend in the long term, but so far it has not bent in the direction desired by the pro-life movement, which has spent years trying to reverse it. egg.
One response is to accuse Republicans of lacking a politically salable way to talk about abortion. But for Republican politicians, there’s no way around the fact that the median voter appears to be wary of abortion restrictions. There is also no evidence that that sense of caution is easing. In fact, it has been on the rise over the past decade. Trump’s rivals in the 2024 primaries have argued that he is unelectable, but his controversial stance on abortion (15 weeks outlawing only about 4% of abortions) Trump is closer than his party indicates. voters’ opinions.
History may show that the debate in this country is polarized. egg It was secondary to abortion and primarily to an old question: the sources of political authority. In a dissent in a 2015 case that established a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, Justice Antonin Scalia wrote: But who controls me is by far the most important. Today’s decision says that my rulers, and the rulers of 320 million Americans across the nation, are the majority of the nine lawyers on the Supreme Court. ”
The Supreme Court is Dobbs He declared that he would end the half-century rule of judges when it comes to abortion. But for now, it appears that the new American people will approve an abortion system that is generally similarly permissive, albeit geographically different.the real test of Dobbs The difference is whether abortion policies made by the majority are more legitimate than those made by the Supreme Court, and whether the process of greater democratic give and take strengthens or weakens political institutions. Dew.
egg He helped Trump take the White House by increasing conservative turnout in the 2016 election and immediately changing the state of the Supreme Court. but, egg Gone, the Republican Party became a victim of its own success. Populist president plans to return to power in 2024 eggTo overthrow it will be necessary to subdue the disorienting democratic forces unleashed by the project.
