Biden tried unsuccessfully to settle the issue on Monday. On Wednesday, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, one of the Democratic Party’s most respected leaders, reopened the debate with carefully chosen words on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
“It’s up to the president whether he wants to run, and we’re all urging him to make a decision because time is limited,” Pelosi said. “The president is loved and respected, and the public wants him to make a decision.”
Pelosi knows Biden has decided to stay in the race, but she doesn’t take that as a final answer. And in a new Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll of registered voters conducted July 5-9, 56% of Democrats surveyed said they think Biden should drop out of the race. Those who argue that choosing a new candidate will split the party should face reality: the party is already divided.
Supporting Biden and hoping he loses is simply not an option: the stakes are too high.
During his four years as president, Trump not only implemented reactionary policies that set the country back, appointed Supreme Court justices who stripped away abortion rights, upset important international alliances, and generally acted on his grievances and whims, he also attempted to overturn a presidential election and incited a violent mob to storm the U.S. Capitol.
Trump faces state and federal felony charges for his role in the January 6, 2021, riot, as well as another federal charge of stealing classified documents. He has already been convicted of 34 state felony charges stemming from hush money payments to adult film actresses. His campaign speeches have been a mix of lies, nonsense, and incomprehensible ramblings. At 78, he will also be the oldest person to be elected president.
This paints a picture of a candidate who should win in a landslide victory. Yet the Post poll has Trump and Biden tied at 46% approval rating, one of the most positive assessments of Biden’s prospects since his “terrible performance” in the debates. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has Trump ahead by 3 points.
By contrast, Biden beat Trump by nine points in the RCP average on this day in 2020. Biden ultimately won the popular vote by 4.4 points.
These are not good numbers for Democrats or for the future of our democracy. Polls in key battleground states are even more disappointing.
It’s impossible to ignore the debt the Democratic Party owes to Biden. Not only did he come out of retirement to beat Trump, he also served as the most influential and progressive president of my lifetime. He certainly deserves another term. But can he win when 85% of respondents in a Washington Post poll said he’s too old to serve another four years?
Maybe not. Trump is seen as too old by 60% of voters. Biden’s team can claim that the president’s approval rating is within the margin of error in many polls, and they have built a powerful get-out-the-vote operation. Most Americans, understandably, do not view Trump favorably.
But the Post poll showed Harris holding a slim lead over Trump in a hypothetical matchup, 49 percent to 47 percent, and when Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents were asked who should replace Biden if he leaves office, the vice president far outshone California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and former first lady Michelle Obama.
Changing candidates is a gamble, and there is no guarantee it will work. I find it hard to imagine a process in which someone other than Harris could be chosen as a replacement. Harris is 59, so she will be able to turn the age issue in her party’s favor, and I’m sure she can unite and inspire the Democratic base. But I don’t know how she will ultimately be perceived among the lost cohort of independents and anti-Trump Republicans. Who knows what will happen?
If the Democratic Party’s smartest politicians and numbers experts see a path for Biden to win, they should all agree to make it happen. But if they don’t, and no one has yet laid out a credible roadmap to victory, they should all agree to make a change. A leap of faith is better than the inevitable slide into the abyss.
