“We maintain multiple paths to winning 270 electoral votes,” the document reads. “At this time, winning the Blue Wall states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) is the clearest path to that goal, but we believe the Sun Belt states are also possible. The consensus of our internal surveys and public polling is that the top line in the Blue Wall states remains broadly within the margin of error.”
This is a darker presentation than it might first seem.
First, it’s important to remember that the apportionment of electoral votes changed starting in 2020. That year’s census reapportioned House seats to the states, causing changes in the number of electoral votes in many states. In 2020, Biden won 306 of the 538 electoral votes.
If this year’s election results had been exactly the same, Biden’s electoral votes alone would have reduced his gains to 303, with six votes going to Donald Trump. Most of the states that lost their electoral votes were strongly Democratic, such as California, Illinois, and New York. However, of the three “blue wall” states mentioned in the memo, two states, Pennsylvania and Michigan, also lost electors. The Sunbelt states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada did not lose any electors.
The memo’s “not out of reach” can be interpreted as “at this point, a loss is likely.” If we give Trump the three Sun Belt states and factor in the changes in electoral college votes since 2020, we can see that Biden would actually win reelection if he carried Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
He would receive 270 electoral votes, one more than he needed.
That’s assuming Biden carries those states. Right now, the Washington Post polling average has Biden trailing in all three “blue wall” states, as does 538. While it’s true that polls generally show each state within the margin of error (and in each state, the Washington Post or 538 averages include a chance of Biden winning), this is a very different situation than Biden found himself in four years ago.
What’s remarkable about this year’s polls is how stable they have been. A Biden campaign memo cited that as a benefit: “See how the debate didn’t ruin our chances!” But it also means the incumbent is on the campaign to explain how Biden might change direction.
In the chart below, poll averages show the estimated margin of victory between the candidates. Light blue indicates Biden’s lead in the state.
Biden has the advantage in that his critics have been unable to explain how the other candidates would change the course of the campaign. It’s not clear that anything will change, or if it will. Some might argue that it will take months of targeted advertising and outreach. But Biden’s campaign has already spent far more money on advertising in those states than Trump. The shape of the race hasn’t changed much.
The Biden campaign is signaling confidence that it can secure 270 electoral votes in November, despite narrow losses in Midwestern states that Biden won four years ago. That’s probably not very comforting to Biden’s supporters, but it’s not clear anyone could do better than Biden.
