This effectively means that Floridians, who face one of the strictest abortion bans in the country, will be asked to veto it and enshrine the right to abortion into the state constitution. If the results of other recent abortion rights votes in red states are any indication, the ruling is unlikely to favor Republicans.
Unsurprisingly, then, this bill has led to optimism among some Democrats that the bill could galvanize Democratic votes and even have a chance in the red-leaning former battleground state. . Democrats are hoping for similar support in several other states where abortion rights could be on the ballot, including Arizona and Nevada. Beyond the presidential election, he hopes these measures will help in important Senate and House elections in more than a dozen states.
Is that actually the case? intention help?
Historical evidence is mixed, particularly when it comes to similar Republicans putting a ban on same-sex marriage on the ballot in 2004. Some studies suggest that the 2004 efforts had essentially no impact, while others point to a small impact on profit margins.
Still, small margins can be important. And the push for abortion rights involves a different and largely unexamined dynamic.
After the 2004 election, many commentators bet that banning same-sex marriage would have a major impact on George W. Bush’s reelection. Republicans won such measures on the ballot in 11 states, and these measures received an average of about 70% of the vote. One of the 11 states was Ohio, which Bush won by just two points. Without Ohio, Mr. Bush would have lost.
Given how important and intimate Ohio was, many scholars have studied whether the same-sex marriage ban tipped the scales in Bush’s favor. Among their discoveries are:
- Studies show the measure does not seem to increase voter turnout. Political scientist Alan Abramowitz found that since the 2000 election, turnout has increased slightly in states with voting systems compared to states without, but this was due to the states being more competitive, not the system itself. He pointed out that it seems to be the case.
- In fact, Bush received just over 2,000 votes in each state. without it Mr. Abramowitz also noted that his state has taken more voting measures than his own state.
- That being said, there was some suggestion that this might have been somewhat important, especially in Ohio State. A Pew Research Center study notes that the Bush campaign made the issue prominent in local black and evangelical churches. According to Ohio exit polls, Bush’s share of the black vote has increased by 7 points from his share in 2000 (versus 2 points nationally), and the share of people who attend church at least once a week has increased by 17 points. (1 point nationally). .
- Another study found that Mr. Bush fared better than expected in highly conservative, evangelical counties in Ohio, but not in Michigan, which also banned same-sex marriage on the ballot. There was found.
Again, the study’s authors noted that Ohio was a potential exception because of how much the Bush campaign pursued the issue. “This result is likely because Bush did not campaign on this issue as much in Michigan as he did in Ohio,” they noted.
If you’re a Democrat and you look at these data, if you really understand this issue, you probably want to use abortion rights ballot measures to make some There may be a path to reversing the vote.
This brings us to the different dynamics of the abortion issue. Not all ballot initiatives are electorally equal. Also, just because one race doesn’t influence another race, or has no influence at all, doesn’t mean the other race will, too.
Back then, banning same-sex marriage was more of a consensus issue than codifying abortion rights now. But at the time, it was about banning something that wasn’t even legal in those (red) states and large parts of the country. Voters weren’t actually reversing anything, and the perceived threat wasn’t all that pressing.
As with other states, the situation in Florida is different. This ballot measure means voters will go to the polls with a stark reminder of what Republicans like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) have done on abortion rights most recently. And few things are more politically impactful than the knowledge that politicians are taking away your rights.
At the very least, Florida’s future choices could put pressure on Republicans to take positions on issues they have so far tried to keep aloof. While Mr. DeSantis played softball on signing the six-week abortion ban while running for president, other candidates struggled mightily to say what kind of restrictions they actually supported. Similarly, Donald Trump has criticized DeSantis’ ban and has taken a surprisingly hands-off approach to the impending Florida voting bill.
“It’s not necessarily a death sentence for the Republican Party, but it’s a net negative,” political consultant and former Republican Arizona congressman Stan Burns told Politico earlier this year. “Voting criteria drives points and forces candidates to take positions, which may be difficult for pro-life candidates because most people support some kind of legal abortion right. Because I want you to.”
That is the most likely impact.
It’s not enough to boost Democratic turnout in the presidential election, which already has high turnout. That means the abortion issue, which has proven powerful for Democrats, remains in voters’ minds more than two years later. egg It was turned upside down.
That could be a problem for Republican candidates. Many of the major 2022 elections have been plagued by overreach on abortion restrictions.
Perhaps crucially, the Florida bill could be a motivator for Democrats, where President Biden has struggled to excite voters about his candidacy. Although it seems unlikely that the presidential election will tilt in red-leaning Florida, which Trump won by 3 points in 2020 and DeSantis won by 19 points in 2022, there are several important The election campaign is being held in a run-off. That includes key Senate races, where Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) has won the past three statewide campaigns by less than one point.
