Biden’s die-hard supporters say the unrest will shift attention away from Donald Trump and undermine his chances of winning the November election. Plus, picking a new candidate is risky and Democrats have little time to change their slate.
So I asked my Post Opinion colleagues Dana Milbank and Jean Robinson. Should Democrats give up on Biden and, if so, when?
💬💬💬
Steven Stromberg: The “disgruntled and confused Democrats” are a perennial Washington theme, but everyone except Joe Biden faces an unusual conundrum: An 81-year-old president isn’t willing to give up the keys. Should they keep trying to get him to let them go?
Dana Milbank: He should never have started in the first place! The constant lecturing backfired on Biden.
Gene Robinson: It certainly seems he has become stubborn, and in my opinion he was never going to back down gracefully.
Dana: As Pelosi suggested on Wednesday, I think if he were given a chance to think about what’s best for the country, he would probably cede control.
gene: But what else is he thinking about? I mean, he says he is thinking about the soul of the nation.
Dana: Yes, but without too much pressure, he could graciously hand over the keys and rightfully claim to have been the best president in decades, but I can’t see him giving in to George Clooney’s demands.
Steve: Biden’s critics say he is acting like Trump — gaslighting the country and holding his party hostage against the good sense of its leaders. Is that fair?
Dana: No. This is not Trump-ish or hostage-taking. This is about pride and dignity. I think he needs space and respect, not a lecture. He’s always done the right thing.
gene: I think his ego is a factor, and he may not be entirely self-aware in terms of how he looks and sounds to concerned Democrats. But keep in mind that there is real disagreement about what Biden should do. There are many readers who think it’s insanity for Democrats to think about switching horses now, and that it’s stay-or-die with Biden, so he’s not alone in that view.
Dana: Jean is right. It’s not at all clear that his resignation would be beneficial for Democrats. There are a multitude of considerations: voting rights, campaign finances, a chaotic convention, an unvetted successor.
gene: I think the polls could be decisive. If his approval rating really drops, it’s going to be hard for him to stay firm and it’s going to be hard for other Democrats, especially those running this fall, to stay quiet.
Dana: So far we’ve seen a couple of percentage points of movement. Essentially, Biden has lost everything he’s gained since Trump’s conviction. If that continues or accelerates, so be it. (The new Cook Political Report is ominous.) But if Biden’s numbers hold steady, it becomes much harder to make the case that it’s worth flipping everything.
Steve: The counterargument I’ve heard is that Democrats are facing a certain defeat for Biden at this point, so the uncertainty of switching horses is preferable. Is that an exaggeration?
Dana: Yes, I don’t think Biden’s defeat is inevitable at this point. It could be, but we’re not there yet. What we need now is calm, not panic. But of course, that’s not going to happen.
gene: Steve, that’s a fine argument if you believe the bad polls as well as the good ones. But imagine Biden’s polls plummeting, sending the Democrats into unknown waters. Who? How? And what legitimacy would that have in the eyes of his supporters?
Steve: Democrats (including future presidential candidates) seem to be uniting around Kamala Harris’ Plan B campaign.
gene: And I think that might work: The novelty of a transition of power so late, and the existential fear of a Trump victory, might unify and motivate the party. But none of that is guaranteed.
Dana: Harris is the only alternative not because there is fraud involved, but because she is the person the delegates are most likely to choose.
Steve: Politics aside, is it responsible for officials who have doubts about Biden’s acumen to go along with it and pretend they don’t have doubts?
gene: That’s irresponsible, Steve, but I understand that officials working with Biden will try to reassure themselves that he was once Joe Biden.
Dana: I think it’s entirely responsible for Biden’s aides and supporters to have doubts about whether Biden can manage four years in power on his current trajectory, but to still support Harris as the right choice for the job. But that doesn’t mean it’s the right decision.
Steve: Now, time for a test of courage: Will Biden run in November’s election? Let’s put this on a scale of 0 to 10, where, as Nixon speechwriter John McLaughlin said, 0 is no chance and 10 is complete metaphysical certainty.
Dana: Seriously, Steve. We may have a new Pope and a new King of England by November. I wouldn’t bet with any confidence that either Biden or Trump will be on the ballot.
gene: It’s true. Only columnists last forever.
🧠🧠ðŸ§
Brain dump
- Vermont’s Peter Welch became the first sitting Democratic senator to call for Biden to step down, and his Post op-ed can be read here.
- Washington Post reporter Karen Tumulty reports from Biden’s campaign headquarters on the theory of victory, including:
- What does it mean for Biden’s delegates to be free? The Washington Post’s Jim Geraghty explains.
- Is the mainstream media guilty of trying to hide Biden’s age? No, argues The Washington Post’s Megan McArdle.
