Uncle Banerjee looks ahead to European and global markets
On another day, another warning from Tokyo capped the yen’s decline, with Asian currencies closer than ever to the 34-year low of 151.975 yen hit last week, spurring repeated intervention warnings. ing.
Although the dollar/yen pair remains above the 151 level, these warnings are working to some extent as the yen is now depreciating at a glacial pace. Last time, the exchange rate was 151.745 dollars.
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Tuesday reiterated his warning to yen bears as Tokyo seeks to halt a destabilizing slide in the currency.
After the initial shock of better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data that cast doubt on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, markets have taken on board the growing evidence of economic strength. It seems there is.
And while investors remain wary of a return to the long bull market, most analysts are more concerned about Fed-easing inflation and the labor market ahead of the jobs report later this week. I suspect that it is.
European stock exchanges are expected to open higher, Futures said, with the region’s stock markets reopening after the holidays on Friday and Monday.
All eyes will be on the pan-European STOXX 600 index, which closed at a record high last week and is poised to start the second quarter on a strong note after posting a 7% gain in the first quarter.
Along with German inflation data, a slew of manufacturing activity data across Europe will also be in the spotlight when investors assess the health of regional economies.
Manufacturing activity in the euro zone is likely to contract in March, according to a Reuters poll, but the focus will be on whether companies remained optimistic about the year ahead. Manufacturing figures for France, Germany and the UK for March are also expected to be released later on the same day.
Investors will analyze the data to determine when the European Central Bank will begin its rate-cutting cycle.
A growing number of ECB policymakers support a rate cut, with the June Governing Council meeting becoming the most likely time for action.
A Reuters poll conducted last week found that all 77 economists expected the ECB to keep deposit rates unchanged at 4.00% on April 11, and about 90% of 68 respondents expected the first interest rate cut in June. I expected it to be.
Key trends that may impact markets on Tuesday:
Economic events: France, UK, Germany, Eurozone March manufacturing PMI data and Germany March inflation report
Debt Auctions: Germany – Two-year government bond auctions resumed.France: Resuming 3-month, 5-month, 6-month and 1-year government bond auctions
(This story has been refiled to correct grammar in paragraph 6 to “has” instead of “have”)
(Written by Ankur Banerjee; Edited by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
