Opinion: Landmark NATO summit in Washington, but little reason to celebrate in Ukraine

Editor’s note: Michael Bochurkiw (translation:) is an international affairs analyst, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. Opinions expressed in this column are his own. Read more opinion On CNN.

Odessa
CNN
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As Washington prepared to welcome world leaders to a landmark summit marking the 75th anniversary of NATO’s founding, I was having a heart-wrenching dinner conversation some 5,000 miles away.

“My dreams have been shattered,” my Ukrainian friend, Inna Ivanova, told me at a restaurant in a secluded corner of Odessa.

Inna, a former resident of this southern Ukrainian port city, was visiting family between jobs as an accountant in Germany.

Before Russia invaded in earnest two years ago, Inna had been studying drama with the dream of becoming an actress, but frequent air-raid sirens and power outages led her, like millions of other Ukrainians, to choose a quieter life elsewhere.

But her confusion continues.

This week, 32 NATO member states will gather in Washington, DC, facing what has been described as “the most dangerous security environment since the Cold War.”

The overall message from Ukrainians I’ve spoken to in recent weeks, including Inna, is: help us stop this war now.

And indeed, putting Ukraine on a winning position should be the primary goal of the summit in Washington. Failure to push back against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to resort to violence will only prolong the war and make it more costly for Europe, especially if thousands of Ukrainians unable to heat their homes seek refuge in Europe this winter.

The summit is likely to raise the issue of Ukraine’s desperately sought NATO membership.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Minister Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze told me that it would be a big mistake for the alliance if NATO leaders “missed the opportunity to demonstrate that Ukraine’s membership is irreversible.”

She added that this would be a much bigger mistake for the region and the world than the “faulty decision at the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit,” which paved the way for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO but had no plan to get there. (Critics argued that this was essentially a warning to Moscow about the two former Soviet states not enjoying NATO protection.)

Given the moves already being made by Brussels to integrate Ukraine and make it more predictable, Kyiv could almost feel like a part of the NATO family, save for the collective protections (known as Article 5) it would supposedly get as a full member.

The Biden administration has talked about the idea of ​​a “bridge” for Ukraine to join NATO, but NATO has not yet offered Kyiv a specific timeline. That said, NATO leaders could get around the membership issue by giving Kyiv a solid roadmap for significantly strengthening its ability to repel Putin’s aggression and establishing itself as an ally.

After more than two years of war, those of us who remain can identify newcomers and returnees like In-ha. Every time an air raid siren sounds, they anxiously scroll through their Telegram channels, assessing the threats (cruise and ballistic missiles being the biggest).

But even a short walk away will reveal that Odessa is opening up and looking less like a war zone. The port, a powerhouse of the local economy and a vital part of the global food supply chain, is returning to pre-war traffic. This summer, tourists will find the military blockade lifted, and the landmark Potemkin Stairs and many other treasured sites reopening.

But beneath the surface, there’s no denying that the war is still taking its toll. Fewer men are fighting in the streets or hiding from conscripts. Morale among soldiers who have been on the force for more than two years with little time off is soaring. Regular visitors say the cemeteries are in dire condition — military cemeteries in Lviv and other cities are full — and businesses are struggling to keep operating amid severe labor shortages and power outages.

Attacks on critical infrastructure here in Odessa and across Ukraine have been so severe that they have destroyed much of Ukraine’s power generating capacity, leading to power outages for several hours a day. “Roughly speaking, we’re without power for more than half the day,” Bohdan Chomiak, a Ukrainian-Canadian living in Kyiv, told me.

Some experts predict that parts of Ukraine could have less than four hours of electricity a day when the first frost hits later this year, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe.

To make matters worse, Russia has reportedly begun attacking renewable energy facilities such as solar and wind farms.

To be clear, the last thing Ukrainians want is for their people to live another minute longer than necessary under brutal Russian occupation, but there has been a noticeable change in public mood, with many telling me they can no longer tolerate a war that has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers and at least 174 civilians in May alone.

There is also growing dissatisfaction with the trickle-down nature of aid to Ukraine, with some arguing that if Kiev had been given all the supplies it needed at the start of the war, Russia would not have been able to use the delay to expand its territory, strengthen its defenses, and repurpose old missiles to attack Ukrainian cities.

The Ukrainians, Traditional alliances with the West may not be as strong as they were in the recent European Parliament elections, when voters swung toward far-right parties. The agonizing five-month wait for the U.S. Congress to approve $61 billion in military and other aid to Kiev should have been a signal to Zelensky’s government that it could no longer count on unlimited U.S. support.

This is especially true with the prospect of former US President Donald Trump returning to the CNN presidential debate, who made the outrageous claim that he would “resolve” the war by the inauguration. It is questionable whether this claim will be used against Ukraine.

Predicted record heat won’t just have NATO leaders in Washington sweating.

Growing doubts about President Joe Biden’s ability to govern, Trump’s strong performance in post-debate polls and political uncertainty surrounding other allied leaders in the aftermath of the European elections are likely to make the summit feel more like a painful farewell than a celebration of NATO unity.

With the clock ticking until the US presidential elections in November, NATO member states are expected to agree to Secretary General Jen Stoltenberg’s proposal to guarantee at least 40 billion euros annually in military aid to Ukraine “for as long as necessary,” an apparent effort to guarantee President Trump’s financial support for Ukraine into the future.

Given the high stakes for Ukraine, people here will be watching Washington closely. One Ukrainian member of parliament, Kira Rudik, leader of the Golos party, told me: “The best way to honor Ukraine’s fight for freedom is to ensure that we ultimately win this war.”