UK elections: Will Sinn Féin’s victory bring a united Ireland closer?

The grounds of Belfast City Hall feature a central statue dedicated to Queen Victoria and many symbols of British and Unionist culture.

But two statues have recently been added to the front lawn, honouring revered women within Irish republicanism.

And the outcome of the UK general election may reflect that change.

The party is already the largest party at Stormont council level in 2022 and at local council level in 2023.

So how did Sinn Féin achieve this success, and what does it mean for the future of Northern Ireland?

Chris Donnelly, a former Sinn Féin election candidate and nationalist political commentator, said the party has “undoubtedly benefited from internal unionist divisions”.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has for years faced internal divisions and pressure from smaller rivals over how to handle Brexit.

The party lost three seats in the election, dropping it to second place in Northern Ireland with five seats.

Mr Donnelly said the DUP had been the “leading voice of trade unionism” for decades but had “driven trade unionism into a dead end”.

“Former Unionist heartlands like North Down, East Belfast and Lagan Valley are now neck and neck with the Alliance. No one would have thought this would happen 25 years ago.”

Meanwhile, Sinn Féin has “shifted its politics more towards the centre and is reaping the benefits”.

Donnelly said the party was seen as “more progressive, more forward-thinking” and had been “relentlessly aggressive” on the campaign trail.

Display cases contain numerous reminders of decades of violent conflict from all sides, including the role of the IRA.

In this election, Sinn Féin continued to face questions about its past links to republican paramilitary groups.

Sinn Féin’s deputy leader and Stormont First Minister Michelle O’Neill declined to say whether she would attend future IRA commemorations.

But Sinn Féin has changed significantly since the relative peace brought about by the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.

Mair Coleman, professor of 20th century Irish history at Queen’s University Belfast, said the younger generation was leading the party.

“There is a generation of politicians who were born after the conflict and were not involved in the conflict,” she said.

“The peace dividend is also evident in electoral politics,” the scholar added.

Sinn Féin has no seats in Westminster due to its abstentionist policy.

Prof Coleman said there was no sign of that stance being reversed, and not just because of the oath of allegiance to the monarch that MPs must recite.

She said that even if the UK “declared a republic tomorrow morning”, the policy “wouldn’t change”.

“Ultimately, Sinn Féin does not recognise the right of the Westminster Assembly to govern Northern Ireland,” she said.

Sinn Féin’s vote share increased compared to the last Westminster election in 2019, but was slightly down compared to recent parliamentary and city council elections.

This follows local and European elections in the Republic of Ireland last month, in which the party failed to make the big gains that many opinion polls had predicted.

Peadar Tobin, a former Sinn Féin councillor and leader of Aontù, said the party had “changed course” on several policy areas, including immigration.

“If you change your stance too much, you lose credibility. Without credibility, it’s difficult for a party to maintain support,” he said.

“Sinn Fein sells itself as an anti-establishment party,” he said.

“But the reality is that they are now First Ministers and deeply involved in the administration of Northern Ireland and they can’t ride two horses at the same time.”

He said that as Stormont “normalises” and “focuses more on real-life issues”, it will be very difficult for Sinn Féin to maintain that level of support.

Sinn Féin’s electoral rise will inevitably lead to debate over the prospects of Irish unity – Northern Ireland leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland.

Donnelly argued that Sinn Féin’s growing influence had forced other parties in the Republic to “get more serious” about the idea.

“So the debate about a united Ireland is more mainstream than ever before,” he said.

But loyalist commentator Emma Shaw said Sinn Féin’s constitutional ambitions should be “put on hold for a while” if it wants to make inroads in unionist communities.

“No one in my community is interested in a united Ireland and in many cases they’re not interested in having that conversation,” she said.

“Should we share the island? 100% yes. We can discuss how Northern Ireland works.”

Mr Shaw said while some might be worried about the rise of Sinn Fein, he was not worried.

“I don’t feel threatened by Sinn Féin or a Sinn Féin First Minister,” she said.

“I want all political parties to work together to make Northern Ireland a successful and better place to live.”

Prof Coleman said the combined vote share of Sinn Féin and the other main nationalist group, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), has “remained fairly stable” at around 40% since the Good Friday Agreement.

“Part of Sinn Féin’s success appears to have come from nationalist voters moving away from the Socialist Workers Party and towards Sinn Féin,” she said.

She said the Northern Ireland secretary who decides to hold a referendum is likely to require consistent evidence of majority support for a united Ireland.

“The results of one general election are not enough. We need an electoral pattern,” she said.

“It’s not enough to just have a lot of seats. You have to have a majority of seats.”

“But we will also need to look at the vote share of the two main nationalist parties who want a united Ireland.”

“It is therefore difficult to see that the circumstances are yet right for the Secretary of State to call for a border vote.”

The timing of a future referendum on Irish unity remains at the Secretary of State’s “discretion”, according to John Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool.

“If it’s a matter of seats, Sinn Féin clearly has the case for a border vote,” he told the BBC’s Nolan Show.

But he also pointed out that the unionist vote was “absurdly” split in parliament, with nationalists not receiving a majority in terms of the overall vote.

If you add up the vote shares of Sinn Féin (27%), the Socialist Workers Party (11%), Aontú (1%) and People’s Party Above Profit (1%), the total comes to around 40%.

However, if you combine the votes of the DUP, UUP, TUV and newly elected independent councillor Alex Easton, the Unionist vote share is even higher, at around 43%.

And of course, there is still the mysterious element of those who have not yet taken a position on the constitutional issue.

Prof Tonge said: “With the Alliance on 15% support in yesterday’s election, we are frankly not sure which way their voters will sway and the debate will continue.”