Since October 7, Iran-fueled Hezbollah has intensified cross-border clashes with Israel, while its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has stepped up frightening rhetoric predicting Armageddon if Israel launches all-out war.
But the truth is that Iran/Hezbollah doesn’t want any more than that. They have good strategic reasons not to engage in formal armed conflict. So their tactic has been to step up provocations, to provoke Israel into fighting back and spark a war.
Iran learned its lesson from its overwhelming failure to counter Israeli defenses on April 13. In its first-ever direct aerial attack, Iran launched 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles toward Israel, 1,000 kilometers away. Iranian leaders were no doubt hoping for a major military and propaganda victory.
The operation was a dismal failure. To supplement Israel’s defense of the Iron Dome, the United States and Britain sent fighter jets to help shoot down the missiles. Jordan refused to allow Iran to use its airspace for the operation, and several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, provided intelligence about Iran’s plans.
As a result, about 99% of its air fleet was unable to reach Israel, and Iran found itself disliked and distrusted not only by Western countries but also by many Middle Eastern countries.
Fearing a lack of full support if a formal Hezbollah-Israel conflict were perceived as Iranian-instigated, Iranian Hezbollah is, in the words of British poet Alexander Pope, “willing to injure, but afraid to attack.”
On June 18, the IDF announced that an offensive plan had been approved to push Hezbollah further back from the border, but that a diplomatic solution remained the preferred option.
The next day, Nasrallah gave a televised address that lasted more than an hour.
He argued that in past wars with Israel, Hezbollah only wanted to be able to attack Israel’s Meron Air Base, but now the whole of Israel is within striking range.
“It’s not indiscriminate bombing,” he threatened. “Every drone has a target. Every missile has a target.”
He boasted that Hezbollah has a large stockpile of drones, a “surplus of fighters” and “new weapons” that will be announced in due course, and said the group is manufacturing military weapons in Lebanon and continues to receive arms from Iran despite Israeli attacks on its arms convoys in Syria.
This is at least in the UK The Daily Telegraph The paper reported on June 23 that the weapons had been flown from Iran to Lebanon and were being stored at Beirut’s main airport. Telegraph The report is based on whistleblowers at the airport who claim to have witnessed a significant increase in the arrival of weapons and the presence of many more Hezbollah commanders on the ground. The whistleblowers claim that operations have intensified since the October 7 escalation of the border conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
According to the report, current weapons storage includes Iranian-made Falak unguided artillery rockets, Fateh-110 short-range missiles, road-mobile ballistic missiles and M-600 missiles with a range of 240-320 kilometers. The airport is also said to have AT-14 Kornet, laser-guided anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs), large quantities of Vurkan short-range ballistic missiles and explosive RDX, a toxic white powder also known as cyclonite or hexogen.
The allegations will raise concerns in Lebanon that Rafik Hariri Airport, just four miles from the city center, could become a major military target in the event of war.
Airport officials claim that Hezbollah’s number two and head of the security apparatus, Wafik Safa, has become a notorious and visible figure at the airport.
“Wafiq Safa always shows up at customs,” one whistleblower claimed. Hezbollah-aligned workers “walk around like peacocks,” he said, with new watches, smartphones and driving new cars. “It’s a lot of money. [is] You’ll be passed under the table.”
Ghassan Hasbani, a former deputy prime minister and member of the Lebanese Forces party, said Hezbollah’s control of the airport has been a long-standing concern for Lebanon, even more so if it could become a military target in a conflict with Israel.
“Weapons shipments from Iran to Hezbollah across border crossings endanger both Lebanese citizens and non-Lebanese nationals traveling to or living in Lebanon,” he said.
He said it would be nearly impossible to take action without international intervention to implement the relevant UN resolutions. “Hezbollah’s bases are everywhere. Not just in the airport, but in the port, the judiciary, throughout society. The administration has now been heavily taken over by Hezbollah.”
Lebanon’s Transport Minister Ali Hamieh called the allegations “absurd” and invited journalists and ambassadors to the airport. Indeed, Hamieh, a Hezbollah appointee to the government, symbolizes the plight of the once independent and sovereign state of Lebanon. Hezbollah has seized an iron grip on power, plunging the country into abject poverty and political deadlock in the process.
Hezbollah undermines political stability in Lebanon
Lebanon has been without a president since October 2022, with Hezbollah and its political allies blocking any candidate from running, plus widespread government corruption and the country is in the midst of its worst financial crisis in its history.
After Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced Lebanon’s default on Eurobonds in March 2020, the Lebanese currency began to plummet, leading to hyperinflation. In April 2023, Lebanon’s inflation rate rose to nearly 270%. Although it took a year for the inflation rate to fall to around 52%, it still represented unsustainable price increases for ordinary citizens, many of whom have become de facto paupers.
The huge refugee burden imposed on the country by the Syrian civil war is a further destabilizing factor. Lebanon has one of the world’s largest refugee populations per capita, with over 1.5 million, the majority of them Syrians.
But Lebanon, overwhelmed by its own internal problems, is caught up in an ideological conflict between Iran, Hezbollah and Israel, and faces the prospect of bombings, destruction, injuries and deaths.
Lebanese people are outraged that their sons have been conscripted by Hezbollah and sent to Syria to help Syrian President Bashar Assad fight the democratic opposition, and would be all the more opposed to Nasrallah’s calls to take up arms against Israel. This is why Nasrallah has refrained from taking decisive measures, preferring instead to point to Israel as the instigator of the conflict.
The author is Eurasia Review’s Middle East correspondent. His latest book is “Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020.” Follow him at www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.
