of Denver Broncos Bo Nix became the sixth quarterback to go undrafted in the 2024 NFL Draft. With the 12th overall pick, Nix joined Caleb Williams (Chicago/1st), Jayden Daniels (Washington/2nd), Drake Maye (New England/3rd), Michael Pennis Jr. (Atlanta/8th) and J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota/10th) in the draft order.
In the aftermath, national pundits and self-proclaimed “draft geeks” all but panned Knicks’ selection, with many of them speaking as if Knicks was merely a remnant of the quarterback the Broncos were forced to pass up at No. 12.
It was an outside nose. The Broncos were secretly ecstatic.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton said the Knicks had been a target for a while, but of course Payton would say that, a cliché thing a coach might say about a first-round draft pick, much less a highly drafted quarterback, and something we’re bound to hear.
But then evidence emerged that backed up Payton’s assertion that the Knicks were always Denver’s top target. FOX Sports Colleague and host of Unbreakable Podcaster Jay Glazer talks about an episode with the Broncos head coach.
Glazer reminded Payton of a crazy idea he’d had on draft day: The Broncos’ head coach would fly to Knicks’ hometown and wait outside his house to personally tell him he’d been drafted, rather than just get the perfunctory phone call that a prospect receives from a new NFL team. Glazer discouraged Payton from going ahead with the idea for a variety of reasons, not the least of which was the possibility that the Knicks would fall behind by the 12th pick.
But Payton and the Broncos front office were convinced that his front-office colleagues around the league would fall prey to the “NFL train,” at which point the trope had been made that Knicks was a weak-arm, system quarterback destined for Day 2. Payton saw his greatness on tape and thought to himself, “We can’t be the only ones seeing this.”
“There are two things: Number one, you should pay attention to the NFL train but never get on it. [is] Never get on that train and make decisions based on it, because we all don’t know who’s driving it.” Payton told Glazer:“When I hear people say, ‘This guy could have been a second or third round pick,’ I know they don’t know what they’re talking about.”
Payton, who spent a year with NFL Media after more than two decades in the upper echelons of the league’s coaching ranks, was aware that media tropes and online mock drafts could create a “cascade” of “hype” that even front-office personnel — highly paid professionals who stay out of the fray — could be susceptible to. In a draft class loaded with quarterback talent, Payton felt strongly that Knicks would stick with the Broncos.
“All of this can affect scouts and coaches and their evaluations and opinions, so trust what you see. When you’re evaluating somebody, block out the noise,” Payton told Glazer. “It’s always talked about. 20 years ago we didn’t have the resources, and now it’s amazing. It’s like the dog is wagging the tail. If you don’t put in the effort, you’re going to be looked at in these mock drafts, at least in the first round. So how do you ignore it? I think that’s the key. I think more people have access to video and workouts and all of this, but I honestly, humbly, I don’t know how many good evaluators there are. It’s a hard position to evaluate to begin with, and when we found out Bo was draft eligible, we knew we weren’t the only ones seeing what we were seeing. And as it turns out, we weren’t. This is an opinion relative to the team behind us.”
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“When I hear people say, ‘This guy could have been a second or third round pick,’ I know they don’t know what they’re talking about.”
– Sean Payton talks about Bo Nix
But there was no guarantee that Knicks wouldn’t be drafted before the Broncos got their pick, which may be why Payton ultimately took Glazer’s advice not to visit Knicks on draft day, but the conversation between Payton and the two men, who are both bona fide NFL insiders and apparently friends, made the point that Knicks was always going to be Denver’s.
It also explains why Payton and Broncos GM George Paton lost any sleep over the alleged “reach” to the Knicks: The draft was top-heavy, with several quarterbacks who displayed the enticing athleticism to be selected in the top 10.
What team was behind the Broncos? Payton and company knew the Knicks wouldn’t last until the Broncos scored again late on Day 2, so they didn’t even have a choice. Whether in Denver’s hands or elsewhere, the Knicks were always going to be a first-round pick, even with a deep quarterback corps, and Payton wasn’t going to risk missing out on the perfect spark for the offense.
Payton has a good laugh at those who worry or marvel that Nix is ​​a “system” quarterback. When the Broncos scout quarterbacks, they remove all “gimme” passes from the candidates’ videos. So much of Oregon’s offensive system is designed to produce gimme passes.
With those types of plays no longer being taken into account, the film on prospects will be much more exposed and clear, allowing the Broncos to truly gauge their quarterback’s true strengths and weaknesses.
Everything Payton saw on tape, that is, except for the gimme play, he was thoroughly impressed with Knicks. The Oregon quarterback was top-tier in every metric that mattered. That’s why there’s still a strong note of derision when Payton brings up the topic of Knicks’ pre-draft reputation, which was largely a scouting sham inflated and distorted by so-called draft “experts” online.
“His offense was highly praised. I heard it a hundred times: ‘He made the most quick throws in college football.’ We got it. We got all of that,” Payton said of Nix on Glazer’s show. “And if you take away all the quarterback quick throws analytically, he was still No. 1 in the class, No. 1 in the class, No. 1 in the class, accuracy, touchdowns, everything you document. Sacks… a guy who throws the ball. There’s a lot of stuff I’ve watched on tape. And I’ve seen the arm talent on the field. Now we’re seeing it. So they can only run the offense that they’re asked to run. Our job is to predict, ‘Can they run this offense?’ And we think he can.”
Since May, Payton has been heaping praise on Knicks, both on Glazer’s show and whenever he’s up at the podium at Broncos headquarters. Payton has had the former Heisman Trophy finalist in his arms for two full months now, and the early results? He’s living up to the hype.
“It comes down to vision,” Payton told Glazer. “What do you see? There’s been a lot of stuff with underthrows, offense, not being able to throw the ball down the field, but the good thing is, we’re getting a chance to see it. We’ve been looking at it for three weeks.”
Those comments came in early June, with the Broncos’ offseason training program already wrapped up, and Payton’s final comments regarding the Knicks echoed previous statements.
“Overall, that’s what we’ve seen and that’s what we’ve evaluated and it’s encouraging,” Payton said June 12.
Nix still has a long way to go to claim the Broncos’ starting quarterback spot. He faces a long, arduous training camp and preseason schedule as he goes up against incumbent Jarrett Stidham (who also put in some work in the offseason) and veteran rookie Zach Wilson.
The Broncos drafted Nicks because they saw their future franchise quarterback through video and in person, and if all of those traits that attracted Payton have actually shown up since he donned the orange and blue, it’s only a matter of time before their quarterback future becomes a reality.
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