According to a poll conducted by CNBC, 56% of Americans believe the US is in a recession.
GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, slowing from a 3.3% increase in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Perception is very important, but the polls we often conduct of individual members of the Economic Modern Family show that they believe the United States is rather in a state of stagflation.
Although there are some weak spots in the economy, there are also many areas that are stable.
Inflation has fallen in some areas, but costs still affecting Americans are rising.
For more information on statistics impacting the U.S. economy, read our Weekly Outlook.
When it comes to our family, it’s both the overall story and the interactions that keep us on the vehicle side of the market.
Starting with Granny Retail XRT and the weekly charts, all of the charts have two light blue horizontal lines which represent the weekly channel stretching back to around the beginning of 2024.
Each chart displays the 50-week moving average in blue and the 200-week moving average in green.
Granny XRT is definitely in the stagnant camp, despite everything we’ve been hearing about consumers.
XRT is above both moving averages, but since the 200 is above the 50, I would call this accumulation rather than bullish.
XRT also held the lower limit of weekly channel support. Key.
If this continues, I think Grandma is signaling that we might be ready to go out and shop again, mostly for essentials, but we remain keen on vanity deals.
The Granddad Russell 2000 IWM is similar in appearance to Granny’s.
This measures small caps and US-based companies, so if yields fall further we could see buyers emerge here.
We expect the IWM to hold the lower weekly channel support. Currently, the IWM looks barely okay, but we expect further upside.
Big Brother Biotech IBB has us covered.This is another delicate area, with diet pills becoming a big hit.
The IBB is located just below the 200 WMA and also in the middle of the weekly channel range. Additionally, in May, the IBB comfortably surpassed the 50 WMA.
I will be keeping an eye on next week as a strong weekly close could see the IBB reach 140 and above.
In the bottom row we have Prodigal Son Regional Bank KRE.
Sure, KRE is bearishly trading below the 50-WMA, which is cause for concern, but KRE is also holding firm to the lows of the weekly channel support.
This is a crucial chart and key indicator for the banking industry this week.
Transportation IYT has been a big theme for us over the past couple of months. IYT has fallen from highs, but last week IYT recaptured the 50-WMA.
If that continues to be the case, we believe investing in the family sector represents a lower risk for investors.
Finally, Sister Semiconductors SMH stole all the attention until last weekend.
SMH has finally taken a breather, but unless SMH closes the month below 250, this will likely be profit taking and not necessarily a high.
This is the last week of June.
Will the family be heading to the beach for fun?
Or will they be having a staycation and bickering amongst themselves?
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The author may hold positions in the securities mentioned at the time of publication. The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity..
