On the economic front, trade and investment ties with Southeast Asian countries have strengthened significantly, with bilateral trade expected to surge from about $80 billion in 2014 to more than $110 billion in 2021-22. However, an existing trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the ASEAN-India Free Trade Area, is seen as heavily favoring ASEAN, irritating India.
India’s exports to Southeast Asia grew modestly in FY23, rising to $44 billion from $42.3 billion a year earlier. Meanwhile, imports from ASEAN countries rose sharply to $87.6 billion from $68 billion, pushing India’s trade deficit to $43.6 billion. Given that the trade deficit in 2011 was just $5 billion, correcting the trade imbalance is all the more urgent.
03:14
Modi’s BJP claims ‘historic’ victory in Indian elections despite smaller majority
Modi’s BJP claims ‘historic’ victory in Indian elections despite smaller majority
On the other hand, economic expansion into ASEAN countries under the Modi administration has Implementing market reforms It set the goal of liberalizing tariffs, but growing discontent among Southeast Asian countries meant that the economic profile of Act East lagged behind policy goals.
On the strategic front, India’s efforts as part of its Act East policy have led to the establishment of a joint ASEAN-led alliance of seven member states. Indo-Pacific Economic Frameworkis an initiative aimed at strengthening economic cooperation between the two important regions of India. Indo-Pacific Maritime Initiative ASEAN’s vision for the Indo-Pacific creates opportunities for extensive maritime cooperation.
Joining forces in these complementary Indo-Pacific strategies will strengthen the alignment of their respective interests in this strategically vital region. Connectivity initiatives such as the US$484 million Kaladan Intermodal Project linking India and Myanmar and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Expressway are examples of what ASEAN and India cooperation can achieve in this area.
However, India’s level of participation remains limited by resource constraints and risk aversion, preventing it from playing a larger role in countering China’s expanding strategic footprint across the Indo-Pacific.Free and Open Indo-Pacific” and its limited role as a security provider guarantor of a regional rules-based order.
02:42
US, India agree on defense cooperation roadmap to counter China’s regional influence
US, India agree on defense cooperation roadmap to counter China’s regional influence
With Modi’s re-election, economic imperatives are likely to become even more important as India seeks to position itself as an attractive alternative to China for investment and manufacturing under its government policies. Production-linked incentives scheme.
Including India’s efforts to further liberalize its services sector could also give new impetus to an expanded economic cooperation agreement with ASEAN.
Security aspects may also be expanded. Joint operations such as maritime activities and naval exercises; India and ASEAN countriesCapacity building and exports to ASEAN navies are just a few of the areas where cooperation could expand. As India expands its military influence in the region to protect its strategic interests, we can expect to see increased emphasis on defense diplomacy and logistics and intelligence sharing with friendly ASEAN nations.
New Delhi could also consider establishing strategic maritime bases and logistics facilities across Southeast Asia. Cam Ranh Bay Indonesia’s Sabang Island could be the fruit of Modi’s third term.
At the same time, India is expected to continue to develop its soft power. Throughout Southeast AsiaIt is seeking to bolster its image as an attractive counterweight to China’s hard power through expanding cultural exchanges, educational ties and development aid programs.
A Vietnamese naval officer photographs two Japanese navy guided missile destroyers anchored in Cam Ranh Bay in central Vietnam, a port south of Nha Trang that is of strategic interest to India and other countries in the region. Photo: AFP
For the small ASEAN nations walking a tightrope between the Indian and Chinese spheres of influence, Modi’s third term holds both opportunities and challenges. An economically integrated and strategically engaged India Countering Chinese dominanceProductive engagement with India could help ASEAN countries increase their influence while avoiding over-dependence on Beijing.
But potential flashpoints arising from a geopolitical standoff between India and Beijing need to be managed skillfully. And ASEAN Centrality ASEAN may face new tensions if U.S.-China tensions loom larger in the region, and it will require statesmanship to leverage India’s increased engagement while avoiding destabilizing spillover effects.
Ultimately, the revised Act East policy will aim to protect India’s core strategic and economic interests. Throughout Southeast Asia At the same time, we advance our vision of an open, inclusive and rules-based Indo-Pacific regional architecture.
ASEAN’s neutrality will come under considerable pressure in the coming years, given overlapping spheres of influence, as India seeks to translate its influence into a stronger strategic alliance. But for the time being, developments in India will continue to strengthen its ties with ASEAN, one of the world’s most successful regional economic alliances.
Professor Syed Munir Khasru is Chairman of IPAG Asia Pacific, an Australian international think tank with offices in Dhaka, Delhi, Vienna, Dubai and Mauritius.
