In a landmark political event on June 9, Narendra Modi was sworn in for a third consecutive term as Prime Minister of India, marking a significant moment in the country’s democratic history.
Modi’s term as prime minister has continued with the support of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition government, reflecting both continuity and a shift toward a broader political coalition following the failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to secure a majority in the recent general election.
At the swearing-in ceremony, held at Rashtrapati Bhavan, the official residence of Indian President Dhruv Murmu, 72 ministers, including key figures such as Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, retained their posts in defence, home and foreign affairs. The cabinet includes 11 leaders from NDA allies, signalling a strategic move towards a coalition government. The cabinet also displays diversity, with prominent representation from various marginalised communities, including Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and ethnic minorities.
The makeup of the new Modi government will depend heavily on political allies and could change the dynamics of India’s foreign policy, especially in relation to Israel. Historically, Modi’s right-wing governments have nurtured strong bilateral relations with Israel, marked by robust defense cooperation, technological exchanges and economic ties.
However, the current political climate may require a nuanced approach. With the BJP lacking an absolute majority, the influence of coalition partners may have a significant impact on foreign policy decisions, at least in some cases directly. Some of these allies may prioritize different aspects of international relations based on their own national political (vote-vote) agendas or may seek to bring their own national political agendas to the fore. This coalition-dependent governance could lead to a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian issue, especially as global recognition of a Palestinian state gains momentum.
Domestically, Muslims played a key role in recent elections, strengthening the representation of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC). This demographic shift could affect the government’s stance on international issues related to Muslim-majority countries, including Palestine. The need to address the concerns of India’s Muslim community may lead the Modi government to adopt a more cautious foreign policy.
While previous BJP governments have been explicitly aligned with Israeli interests, the current political climate may force Prime Minister Modi to reassess his strategy. Growing global awareness of Palestine and the active presence of the Muslim community in India may push the Indian government towards a more diplomatic approach to Middle East policy.
Current state of India-Israel relations
Despite these potential changes, the core of the India-Israel relationship, based on mutual interests and strategic partnership, is expected to remain strong. Defence and technology cooperation is likely to continue, driven by long-standing agreements and shared security concerns.
Modi’s third term is marked by a subordinate coalition government, presenting challenges and opportunities. While fundamental ties with Israel are expected to continue, the nuances of the coalition government, as well as the changing global and domestic context, will shape the future trajectory of India-Israel relations.
The government’s ability to balance these factors will be crucial to maintaining and developing this important bilateral relationship in a complex and dynamic international political environment.
Hriday Sarma is an India-based lawyer specializing in cross-border trade and investment, and Nina Slama is an expert on Indian foreign policy at Reichmann University.
