French President Emmanuel Macron has confounded supporters and opponents alike by calling early elections for the National Assembly after center-right parties suffered crushing defeats in European elections, a risky gamble to galvanize support for mainstream parties ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The outcome will have implications for the future of Europe and its relations with China and Russia, with centre-right parties divided over how to deal with China, focusing on trade and rights or ideology.
In France, far-right parties including two-time presidential runner-up Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won nearly 40% of the vote, setting the stage for Le Pen to run for president again. Her party won 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Macron’s centrist coalition.
The landslide victory for the far-right candidates prompted reflection in other parts of Europe, but the centre-left won in the European Parliament in Brussels, with the centrist European People’s Party expected to win around 184 seats, eight more than in 2019, giving it control of a quarter of parliament.
That means Ursula von der Leyen is likely to continue as European Commission president. Although she is a China hawk, she is a well-known figure in Beijing, having accompanied Macron to summits with Chinese leaders there last year and in Paris this year.
Her continued welcome in Beijing could be a boon to efforts to improve relations amid ongoing tensions over trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
As a result of the rise of the far-right, Europe-China relations will become more fragmented and sensitive at the bilateral level. Moreover, Hungary, China’s ally and largest trade and investment partner in Eastern and Central Europe, will assume the EU’s rotating presidency next month.
Strengthening European rights could affect the security and economic balance, making bilateral agreements the key to stability.
