But the ruling serves as a reminder of how much abortion rights, and especially how far Republicans and conservatives are willing to go to restrict abortion rights, could cast a shadow over 2024. Donald Trump has studiously avoided these issues, including by violating the deadline for his own position on mifepristone. But Democrats are likely to bring these issues up often early in the campaign, and true believers in the anti-abortion movement are plotting how to bring Trump to heel.
There has long been doubt about how much the issue favors Democrats, but recent elections have shown it clearly does, and this week, as the Supreme Court issues its decision, new data was released showing the abortion issue continues to sway voters.
It may be energizing them more than before. Whether that’s in President Biden’s interest is another matter.
Gallup has long asked voters whether they have taken a litmus test on abortion rights — essentially, the question asks whether they would require candidates to support abortion rights or share their anti-abortion views in order to get their vote.
And the latest polling shows the country is continuing to trend toward support for abortion rights.
Twenty-three percent of voters support abortion rights and want a candidate who will do the same, while only 8% oppose abortion rights.
This is not only a reversal from the situation a quarter century ago; egg It went down in 2022. All that time, being against abortion rights has been something of a litmus test, and the margin is actually larger now than it was in 2022 or 2023.
In both years, the share of voters calling for abortion rights to be supported exceeded the share calling for them to be opposed by 7 percentage points, but the gap has since widened to 15 percentage points.
There was some surprising data in this regard last week.
Fox News polls in Arizona and Florida showed startling levels of support for adding an abortion right to their state constitutions: 70 percent in Arizona and 69 percent in Florida, with even Trump supporters and Republicans in both states tending to support the ballot measure.
These surveys appear higher than other surveys, indicating that these measures are also leading by large margins.
In fact, even if these bills come close to those numbers in November, it would be the biggest victory for abortion rights of any state, which has won every statewide vote since the late 1990s. eggThey outperformed the Democratic presidential vote by about 8 percentage points on average, and as high as 12 points (in Ohio last year).
The new numbers from Arizona and Florida would improve Biden’s 2020 results by more than 20 points.
While much is still uncertain and these numbers could decline over time, it seems likely that these states’ tougher restrictions (Arizona temporarily reinstated a near-total ban from 1864, and Florida has a six-week ban) may have tilted voters even more in favor of abortion rights protections, which is especially ominous for efforts to restrict abortion.
At the same time, these data don’t necessarily suggest a political game-changer for Biden.
For example, Gallup found that new demand for support for abortion rights was almost exclusively among Democratic voters, suggesting that this may increase turnout rather than change the outcome of the vote.
The data from Arizona and Florida mirror a notable finding in other polls: Abortion rights are clear winners in these battleground states, but voters are not giving Biden, who supports abortion rights, that advantage.
The abortion rights ballot measure carried a 43-point lead in Arizona (70-27), but Biden led by just six points (50-44) when asked which candidate would do a better job on the abortion issue. The measure also carried a 42-point lead in Florida (69-27), but Biden led by just five points (50-45) on the issue.
Even though President Trump appointed the judge who overturned the ruling. egg And take credit for that decision.
One way of looking at this is that abortion rights may not save Biden, and perhaps Trump’s distancing on the issue is to his advantage, while another is that the issue represents a perfect opportunity for more effective messaging in the final months of the campaign.
At the very least, there seems to be a growing segment of the population that is willing to accept that contrast.
