In 1977, Ronald Reagan shared his thoughts on the Cold War with his aide Richard Allen. “My thinking about American policy toward the Soviet Union is simple, some would say too simple,” the future president said. “It’s this: We win and they lose. What do you think?”
This year, Joe Biden has framed his presidency as fighting authoritarianism at home and abroad. His theory of victory?
He doesn’t seem to have it. His governing style is about managing threats, not defeating them. He has sought to provide Ukraine with enough weapons to hold its own against Vladimir Putin. But even before Republicans in Congress forced the spending freeze, he was reluctant to give Ukraine the type and number of weapons it needed to drive Russian forces out of Ukraine. He believes Israel has a right to defend itself. But his earlier insistence that Hamas must be defeated has been replaced by a U.S.-backed ceasefire resolution that effectively ensures Hamas’ survival.
President Trump has vowed that Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon. But the United States has sought to soften diplomatic criticism after Iran denied international inspectors access to its nuclear facilities. President Trump has promised to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion. But U.S. military spending, adjusted for inflation, has remained roughly flat, and U.S. naval power has not kept up with China’s growth.
What about domestic threats? Biden is sleepwalking his way to defeating a vicious opponent who incited violence to overturn the election three years ago. Biden’s approval rating is at 37.6%, the lowest of his presidency, according to a polling average. Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush found themselves in similar situations during their one-term presidencies.
Joe Biden desperately needs a real victory, not just a superficial one. Who in the administration is figuring out how to give him one?
The Gaza ceasefire, at least in itself, is not that. It merely postpones a problem that needs to be solved: Hamas’ continued control of the area. It starts with a six-week pause in fighting that may result in the release of some of the Israeli hostages in exchange for a few hundred Palestinian prisoners. But the ceasefire is in danger of falling apart, because as long as Hamas remains in power, the Israeli government will not withdraw from all of Gaza, and as long as Israeli troops remain in Gaza, Hamas will not release all of its hostages or fulfill the other conditions of the agreement.
That means the ceasefire could fall apart as the election approaches, a moment Biden last needs is another Middle East crisis. A potential salvation would be a deal with Saudi Arabia that would see Saudi Arabia recognize Israel and send Arab security forces to Gaza in exchange for U.S. defense guarantees and a vague Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state in the future.
Will this plan succeed after all the administration has done to humiliate and antagonize unsavory leaders in Jerusalem and Riyadh? Or will these leaders bide their time to hand the prize to Donald Trump? This is a question for the future, and a lesson.
Ukraine may be another win for Biden, but it will be an easier one. It’s good that Washington has finally supplied Ukraine with long-range ATACM missiles, putting a wider range of Russian targets at risk. Why did it take so long? Why must Ukraine always be on the brink of defeat before the president finally relented and gave them the weapons they needed?
A year after they were promised, Ukraine still doesn’t have F-16s. Why not add some US-made cruise missiles to give the F-16s more power? Or, in the spirit of Harry Truman’s Berlin Airlift, open a US air corridor to Kiev? That would demonstrate US determination to defend a beleaguered ally without fear of an authoritarian foe. The more Biden works to make US support for Ukraine “proof against Trump” in preparation for the risk of his November defeat, the more secure his legacy will be.
But the biggest win Biden will need will be a domestic one.
The problem isn’t the executive order all but banning asylum for immigrants; that only confirmed his failure to use all the options available to him to address the crisis. The problem isn’t falling unemployment; you can’t make 2022 inflation or current high interest rates disappear with a magic wand. The problem isn’t Trump’s legal battles; that seemed to inspire his supporters at least as much as it delighted his opponents.
And Democrats would be unable to find a way to remove Kamala Harris from the running, which would likely not assuage many voters’ fears about a weak president being succeeded by an unpopular and unconvincing vice president. Excluding the first black woman as vice president would likely alienate many Democratic voters.
Given all this, the president is left with just one choice that could make a difference to America and ultimately history: He can choose not to run, yield to a winnable Democrat, call on Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer, and take the hard, courageous action necessary to ensure the safety and peace of the free world.
There is still time — just a little while — and it will be a legacy of courage, honor and change.
