Why the rise of the far-right in European elections bodes well for Trump

CNN
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In June 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union in a populist revolt, foreshadowing Donald Trump’s shock outsider election victory a few months later.

And now, in June 2024, far-right candidates, many of whom share President Trump’s populist nationalism, hostility to immigrants, hard-hitting economic message, and contempt for ruling elites and globalist institutions, have just won landslide victories in the EU elections.

Is political lightning about to strike twice?

American voters don’t take cues from foreigners, and U.S. presidential elections, which are held state by state, are very different from those in the European Union. Moreover, Trump’s victory eight years ago had more to do with Democrat Hillary Clinton’s flawed campaign than Brexit. But President Joe Biden should be concerned. Recent election campaigns in Europe have successfully tested a message that mixes a potent political cocktail: public anger over perceived out-of-control immigration, voters’ pain in the face of rising prices, and the personal costs of tackling climate change. Trump is pressing these themes hard in battleground states that will determine the outcome of the White House race.

Another lesson of the European elections is that in times of inflation, incumbents are vulnerable to attack by disgruntled voters. When Biden arrives at the G7 summit in Italy this week, he will join four politically weakened Western leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are slammed and hurt by European elections that have benefited far-right parties that reflect the continent’s dark past. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s low approval ratings may not even allow him to lead the Liberal Party in elections due by the end of next year. British Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected to lose next month’s general election after 14 years of Conservative rule. Ironically, the most stable European leader in the G7 may be Italy’s right-wing prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, known for changing leadership one after the other. Meloni’s party won a major victory over the weekend, making her one of the most influential leaders on the other side of the Atlantic.

Biden’s saving grace may be that this US election is not a traditional showdown between an insurgent outsider and an unpopular incumbent president. Trump himself is in many ways an incumbent, boasting a controversial White House record and carrying a heavy political burden as a former president who has been twice impeached and convicted. And populist nationalism is not on the rise everywhere. Biden led a surprisingly successful midterm election campaign against the “Make America Great Again” forces in the Republican Party in 2022. Labour is expected to return to power in the UK next month, bucking the trend of rising right-wing parties. And Poland has just rejected eight years of Trump-inspired populist rule.

Macron responded to the rise of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally with a bold maneuver that surprised commentators watching his post-election speech in a television studio. He has dissolved parliament and called new elections. The National Rally is an evolution of the far-right, anti-immigration National Front, which has so far failed to survive the two-round electoral system and win the presidency. Le Pen is now softening some of her policies to appeal to a wider base of voters.

Macron, whose centrist party suffered a crushing defeat in the European Parliament elections, may be gambling that higher voter turnout in parliamentary elections could reverse that trend, after which an anti-far-right coalition could emerge in parliament. But a victory for the Rally National in a two-part election a few weeks before the Paris Olympics could force Macron to appoint 28-year-old far-right star Jordan Bardella as prime minister. Cynics suspect Macron is secretly hoping that his far-right government will perform so disastrously that it will destroy Le Pen’s hopes of succeeding her in 2027.

Macron told voters that his bet was based on faith in “the ability of the French people to make the fairest choice for themselves and for future generations.” He implicitly implored voters disheartened by the economy to defend their country’s fundamental values, positioning his announcement as an act of “faith in democracy.” This echoes the warning Biden and Macron shared last week at the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings that American democracy was in grave danger and needed to be saved by voters.

As a result, the White House will be watching the results of the French elections on July 7 even more closely than it will Sunday’s EU elections.