Despite the best efforts of his party to support his candidacy, Trump has never received more votes in a general election, winning in 2016 through the apportionment of electoral votes and losing in 2020 after many voters expressed dissatisfaction with his presidency.
Trump finds himself in an unusual position this November, heading into his third presidential election: neck and neck or even ahead of his opponents, and benefiting from widespread hostility or apathy toward the incumbent Democratic president. A new poll raises the question of whether enough Americans still dislike him enough to block him from returning to the White House.
A YouGov poll conducted for CBS News asked Americans how and why they reached their decision to vote for president. The survey found that President Trump and President Biden are neck and neck, both nationally and in battleground states, by one point. But it also found wide differences in the reasons Americans support each candidate.
Respondents were asked to decide whether their planned vote was best driven by enthusiasm for the candidate, loyalty to the candidate’s party, or hostility toward the candidate of the other major party. Most Trump supporters said they supported Trump because they like him, while a majority of independents who support Trump said they voted against Biden.
Many Biden supporters were of the view that they supported Biden because they disliked Trump. This was especially true among independents, but even a majority of Biden supporters, Democrats, were more likely to point to hostility toward Trump than enthusiasm for Biden.
Most respondents said their voting choice was based on a comparison of the two candidates. But nearly half said it was a judgment about one of the two major party candidates. Democrats were 10 points more likely than Biden supporters to say their voting choice was a judgment about Trump. Republicans were 6 points more likely than Biden supporters to say their voting choice was a judgment about Trump.
As you might expect from the numbers above, Trump supporters were more likely than Biden supporters to indicate strong support for their candidate. Overall, 93% of Biden supporters said they strongly supported Biden, and seven in 10 said they supported him very strongly. Among Trump supporters, 96% indicated strong support, and nearly eight in 10 said they supported him very strongly.
Trump’s support was strong among both his party’s own party members and independents: Two-thirds of Trump’s independents said their support was very strong, compared with 55% of Biden’s independents. (The dotted line at the top makes it easier to compare between the total and independents.)
CBS also presented respondents with a series of questions assessing how each candidate was viewed. Biden received higher ratings on only two items – likability and compassion – while Trump received higher ratings on the remaining items, including competence and effectiveness. In general, Biden was viewed more favorably by those in his own party, and those in the opposing party viewed Trump less favorably than Biden.
The favorability numbers are shocking: Only a third of respondents said they liked Trump, and just under half said they liked Biden, but as we pointed out last week, many Biden and Trump supporters don’t particularly like their candidates. DisIn this election, “like” is a stronger factor.
The CBS poll asked respondents to rate threats to democracy and the rule of law, and three-quarters of Democrats said they believe democracy and the rule of law would only be upheld if Biden wins, which is unsurprising given the Biden campaign’s focus and Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
But an equal share of Republicans said they believe democracy and the rule of law would only be upheld if Trump wins, a reflection of his false claims about the 2020 election and prosecution. (The poll also found that 8 in 10 Republicans believe the baseless claim that Biden had a hand in prosecuting Trump.) Overall, respondents were about equally likely to see Biden and Trump as the saviors of American institutions.
A CBS News poll found that about a quarter of voters support Trump because they like him. Another quarter support Biden because they dislike Trump. Conversely, only three in ten support Trump because he is not Biden or because he is Biden.
In other words, November will once again be a referendum on Trump as the incumbent president.
