Last week, I published an article looking at and interpreting years of data on quarterback touchdown rate, with the goal of identifying several quarterbacks who are trending up or down in the touchdown department going into 2024 and how that might impact their fantasy value in this fall’s draft.
Some of the principles I laid out in that article apply to any position, especially since regression to the mean is common after an unusual touchdown season. However, the smaller sample size and the fundamentally different nature of other positions makes pooling and analyzing data a bit more difficult, so finding similar information for the running back position requires digging a bit deeper.
Other Position TD Rate Trends: quarterback | wide receiver | Tennessee
To make this possible, I used a method similar to the one TJ Hernandez used in his previous article, with a few tweaks of my own. This method places emphasis on touchdown percentage per carry or target. From the specified field positionObviously, a target from the opposing team’s 1-yard line is much more likely to result in a score than a carry from midfield. This methodology will yield more granular data and more accurate trends (but may require more work to collect).
These historical rates are inevitably Just like with predicted probabilities, in a decent sample they are usually pretty close. The following table gives an overview of touchdown rates for all running back opportunities (carries and targets) over the last 10 seasons, aggregated by field position for clarity.
| Line of scrimmage | TD rate, carries | TD rate, target |
|---|---|---|
| Opponents 1-5 | 40.0% | 46.3% |
| Opponent 6-10 | 10.6% | 24.6% |
| Opponent 11-19 | 4.5% | 9.7% |
| Opponent 20-29 | 1.5% | 4.7% |
| Opponent 30-39 | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Opponent 40-Owned 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Red Zone (within 20 yards) | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| total | 3.0% | 3.0% |
As expected, in goal-to-go situations, the likelihood of a running back scoring spikes, especially near the goal line. Also noteworthy is the increase in the value of targets and carries at each field position range, adding even more weight to the fantasy advantage of pass-catching backs who are frequently involved in the red zone.
If these numbers define the “norm,” what happens when a player has an exceptional season? Take Tony Pollard, for example. In 2022, the former Cowboys RB recorded an astounding 12 touchdowns (9 rushing, 3 receiving). As a result, fantasy managers (and the Cowboys, for that matter) projected Pollard to have a big upside as an RB1 heading into 2023. But a closer look at the data may reveal reasons for hesitation. Based on a 10-year sample, Pollard rushed for 4.8 touchdowns per game. Expecting too much In 2022, he has scored 1.8 more touchdowns than expected (6.6 more total points than expected). Pollard’s season included improbable touchdowns from opponents’ 13, 18, and 30 yards out, as well as touchdowns from his own 32, 43, and 46 yards out. He has scored five times on 217 attempts outside the red zone (2.3%). More than 4 times Better than expected.
In 2023, Pollard’s touchdown rate plummeted, and his fantasy numbers suffered as a result. Despite a projected 11.6 touchdowns, Pollard only scored six times on the year, 5.6 fewer touchdowns than projected. He scored on 1 of 247 chances outside the red zone (0.4% of the norm), but struggled especially near the goal line, scoring on just 3 of 17 carries from or near the 5-yard line.
Oddly enough, Pollard’s final two seasons both sides The other side of the coin: His 2022 touchdown percentage was so high it predicted a decline in his 2023 performance, but his 2023 number was so low… so there is a silver lining.
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