Brett Stephens: Hi Gayle. I know you want to talk about the Hunter Biden trial, but I want to give kudos to Edgar Sandoval of The Times for his excellent reporting from the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas last week. The bottom line is that once-Democratic Latinos in Texas are turning against Joe Biden because of the chaos at the border.
Do you think the president’s executive order, which effectively bans asylum applications, will turn things around, or will it simply confirm more than three years of inaction by his administration as the crisis worsens?
Gail Collins: Brett, there are neighborhoods in Texas that are the first stop for people crossing the border illegally, where residents, regardless of ethnicity, will be nervous about their towns being inundated with strangers, homeless, jobless, and hiding from their government.
It’s a crisis, but I think you’ve long agreed that, overall, immigration is a great thing for the national economy. We desperately need immigrants for agricultural jobs, and if immigrants had the right to work legally, it would spark an immigration boom in places like New York, which currently struggles to house newcomers who don’t even have their real names.
Brett: We don’t know. New York and Chicago are spending billions of combined taxpayer dollars to deal with the influx of immigrants. San Diego is being hit by a wave of “robbery tourism” from criminal gangs crossing the border. Public schools are being forced to enroll thousands of immigrant children despite tight budgets. Unscrupulous employers are abusing migrant workers, many of them underage. And right-wing populists from Brussels to Mar-a-Lago are reaping the political benefits.
I’m all for immigration, as long as it’s legal, brings in people we want to know, and doesn’t come at the expense of people who already live here. What’s happening now is another own goal for Biden, similar to his staunch defense of his son Hunter. Or am I completely wrong?
Gail: I knew it wouldn’t be long before I reached Hunter.
Brett: It rhymes with “punter.” Sorry, continue…
Gail: Here’s my interpretation: When Troublesome was 2 years old, his mother and sister were killed in a car accident that left him and his brother, Beau, severely injured. He was completely devastated when Beau died of cancer nine years ago, at age 46.
Hunter was a tortured drug addict who later recovered, got sober, and adopted the ever-popular celebrity role of telling all in a widely-publicized autobiography. It’s easy to be cynical about some or even most of this, but I don’t think Americans expected anything less from Joe than a sad but supportive father.
Brett: I admire the President for being a loving father. I admire Hunter for getting sober. I know addiction is an affliction that deserves sympathy from all involved.
But what I don’t respect is this: Hunter could have spared his family from a trial by taking a plea deal, regardless of what happened before. His brother’s widow, Harry, could have spared her from the humiliation of having to admit on the stand that she and Hunter smoked crack when they were lovers. His daughter, Naomi, could have spared him the legal risk of testifying in a deposition that Hunter was sober at the time, despite emails she had sent suggesting he still was. A father could have spared himself the need to continue to defend his son. And he could have spared the administration the hypocrisy of calling for stricter gun control while defending Hunter’s blatant gun control violations as legally inconsequential.
And it’s all a gift to La Panza Naranja, who, by the way, continues to lead in all battleground states despite being convicted of 34 felonies.
Gail: Okay, Brett, I think your approach to Hell Hunter is pretty convincing. But who really cares what happens to him? The big question in this is how it affects his father. And I’m sure the American people expect the father to stand by his son. Privately. And, as I’ve already vowed, I’m not going to try for a pardon if Hunter is convicted.
Brett: That’s good. And it’s smart. But we must remember that whatever the outcome of this case, Hunter will be back on trial in September on tax evasion charges. And politically, it will negate Biden’s advantage over Donald Trump on ethics issues. Not because it’s fair, but because many disinterested voters will conclude that both candidates are ethically responsible and will vote for the person whose record and policies they prefer.
Unfortunately, that will be Trump…
Gail: Trump, the man whose only economic vision is to cut taxes for the wealthy? The man who refuses to protect abortion rights or even the right to birth control? The man with such a terrible record with women that it’s easy to understand why Melania Trump stays holed up in her backyard?
Brett: Yes, that’s him.
Gail: There are many, many concerns about this election, but there is no question that Biden is the better candidate and, with any luck, will be re-elected. When it comes down to it, American voters will prefer someone who hasn’t been convicted of dozens of financial crimes.
Brett: You reminded me of H.L. Mencken’s famous line, “Democracy is the theory that ordinary people know what they want and deserve to get it firmly,” and, unfortunately, that is exactly what is about to happen here.
Can I share my theory on why I think Trump will win?
Gail: I know this is going to ruin my day, but come on.
Brett: Trump is telling a story that is truer to the America experienced by swing-state voters than Biden is. The president says it’s morning in America. His predecessor says it’s darkness at noon. If you’re a middle- or working-class wage-earner American who didn’t benefit much from the stock market boom and who is hit with the high inflation of 2022 and the high interest rates of today, Trump’s portrayal seems about right. Add in the fact that the outside world, whether it’s on the southern border, in the Middle East, or in Ukraine, feels much more threatening today than it did five years ago, and Trump’s message, combined with his intransigence, resonates even more.
In short, what these voters are saying is: “Give us Genghis, not Grandpa.”
Gail: Sigh. I fully agree that the issue of old people is Biden’s curse. But when we get to the heart of the campaign, people will be reminded by daily TV ads that Trump is a man who was convicted of sexual assault, who vowed to be a dictator on “day one” and who broke the law to finance his dirty personal deals. People will be reminded that there are worse things than an 80-plus year old staring at a cue card.
Admit it: deep down you think the American people will get it.
Brett: I hope so. I don’t think most Americans believe Biden can complete a second term, given his obvious decline. So this election is also a referendum on whether Kamala Harris will be president. Harris has a 38% approval rating and a 50% disapproval rating. If the Democrats were serious about beating Trump, and not just going off into the abyss, they would remove Harris from the running. But we know that’s highly unlikely.
On a side note, Gayle, I was really saddened to learn that astronaut Bill Anders, who took the famous “Earthrise” photo from Apollo 8, died in a plane crash. Do you have any thoughts on the impact of that photo?
Gail: You know, I grew up in the anti-war, Watergate era, and none of the people I was hanging out with wanted anything to do with the government, so unfortunately, we didn’t get to see much of the wonder of the early space program.
Brett: I was obsessed with the Apollo program as a kid, and I still remember the names of all the men who walked on the moon: Armstrong, Aldrin, Conrad, Bean, Shepard, Mitchell, Scott, Irwin, Young, Duke, Schmitt, and Cernan. But none of it would have happened without three Americans, Frank Borman, Jim Lovell, and Bill Anders, who taught the world that exploration is about self-discovery, and that the most important word in life is “perspective.”
Gail: Now I’m reminded of the Joni Mitchell song about that photo.
And I couldn’t see the city
On a marbled bowling ball
Or forests and highways.
Or I especially
I will then give you all the verse quotes back, and thank you for featuring them.
Brett: You can’t beat Joni. She has the last word.
