The first nationally televised presidential debate in 1960 was also broadcast live on radio and featured a gentlemanly showdown between then-U.S. Sen. President John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts and Vice President Richard M. Nixon of California debated. There was no live audience, no post-debate fuss or spin rooms. Analysis took place mainly over the next few days, critiquing the performances and fact-checking. On television, Nixon appeared sporting a five o’clock beard, sweating, and looking less than comfortable compared to Kennedy’s usual smile and wit. Television viewers generally felt that Kennedy had won the debate, but radio audiences preferred Nixon’s more detailed and thoughtful responses, giving him the nod of victory.
We’ve come a long way since those days, but not all for the better. Since JFK’s upset victory, the incumbency advantage remains strong. Kennedy would have had a good chance of being re-elected had he not been assassinated. Vice President Lyndon Baines Johnson In 1964, Nixon won the presidency, defeating Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater; there were no debates between the two. Due largely to his declining popularity and health problems, Johnson declined to run for a second term in 1968, handing the reins to Vice President Hubert Humphrey. Nixon defeated Humphrey in 1968 (without debates), then Senator George McGovern in 1972. In 1980, incumbent President Jimmy Carter was defeated by a large margin, due to a stagnant economy caused by inflation, energy shortages, the Iranian hostage crisis, and some highly memorable speeches and debate performances by challenger Ronald Reagan, the former Governor of California.
The next incumbent president to lose the White House, George H. W. Bush, also faced a worsening economy and spent too much time staring disinterestedly at the clock during the three-way debate than engaging with his opponents, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton and fellow strong-willed Texan H. Ross Perot. Since the 1992 campaign and debates, every incumbent president who chose to run for reelection had won, until Donald Trump was narrowly defeated by current President Joe Biden in 2020.
Trump handily defeated Republican candidates in 2016, and when he debated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the fall of 2016, he said, “Lock her upDuring the election campaign, he was often heard repeatedly calling on Clinton, who was under criminal investigation by the Department of Justice and the FBI, to “drop out of the election race.”
At this point, neither Biden nor Trump are the official candidates of their parties. Only the Libertarian Party has met at its convention, voted, and selected its candidate. The candidate is Chase Oliver, a somewhat regular from Atlanta. Candidates from both major parties have avoided the involvement of the Commission on Presidential Debates (CDP), which was established in 1987 as a nonpartisan nonprofit organization. Though not perfect, the CDP has done a competent job for nearly 40 years without taxpayer funding or support. And now we come to 2024. Biden and Trump have each agreed to hold a rule-filled, closed-door debate on Thursday, June 27, at CNN’s Atlanta studio. The second debate, hosted by ABC News, is scheduled for Tuesday, September 10.
Trump will promise to close the border, mass deportations, revive a stronger economy, and ensure fraud-free elections and judicial proceedings. Biden will proclaim himself the defender of democracy and the rule of law, and tout “benefits” for his voter base, such as restoring a federal right to legal abortion to women and expanding college loan debt forgiveness. Despite strong public dislike of both candidates, there may be a small number of “undecided” voters that either candidate believes he can persuade or win over.
Instead, both sides are betting that any unforced errors or blunders they make in June or September will be considered old news by Halloween, lingering in campaign ads and Tik Tok memes until the fall.Historically, most presidential elections are decided by late voters, who make up 15 to 20 percent of the electorate and make their choices in the final few weeks of the election.
The current status of both candidates suggests that, for different reasons, only one of the two planned debates may actually take place. I think Atlanta is the more likely of the two, but the September date would create some distance between Trump and his court verdict, by which time Hunter Biden’s trial would also be over. Either way, this political drama, like a dumpster fire, will remain difficult to look away from, producing presidential election moments that we may recall with laughter or horror decades from now.
