In fact, we now have some real hints as to who it might be.
The Washington Post’s Marianne Levin reports that the Trump campaign has requested documents from at least eight potential vice presidential candidates. That doesn’t mean this is a final list — things could change, especially with someone as mercurial as Trump in charge of the decision-making — but these candidates are certainly front-runners.
So now that we have a firmer foundation, let’s take a quick look at who these eight people are and what they can and can’t bring to the shortlist.
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)
Main features: Rubio has never lived up to the potential he once held as the “savior of the Republican Party,” but there’s a reason he attracted so much attention early in his career. He represents what the party has always stood for: relatively young, diverse, telegenic, and an effective messenger with a brand to sell. Perhaps more than anyone on this list, electing him might be a conciliatory offer to the type of voters who wanted Nikki Haley to be the nominee in 2024 and supported her long after she withdrew. (Haley herself appears to be off the ballot.)
Biggest drawback: Trump has proven he can make peace with people who once criticized him, but he and Rubio said some really nasty things about each other in 2016. Imagine the Democrats running an ad in which Trump’s running mate calls Trump a “con man.” Also, either Trump or Rubio would need to establish a residency outside of Florida, because the Constitution bars two candidates from the same state from winning that state’s electors. Rubio is a sitting senator from Florida. Would Trump really move to Florida? For Him? Apparently there is a problem.
Betting Lines: If they can work that out, chances are good.
Main features: Vance seems most aligned with Trump’s political style — populism, election denialism, unfounded claims of legal persecution of Trump, and a non-interventionist foreign policy — and he seems able to sell that vision: Onetime Trump critic, Vance literally wrote the book on what makes Trump’s supporters tick.
Biggest drawback: If Trump wants election help, it’s not clear Vance is offering it. Voters have not found him appealing at all, even though he was elected to the Senate in 2022, finishing in the state below Trump’s margin of victory. Method He performed worse than other state Republicans who appeared on the ballot with him, and the Trump campaign may ask why.
Betting Lines: As strong as Rubio.
Main features: Like Rubio, Cotton has long been seen as the future of the traditionally conservative Republican Party: just 47, he’s a decorated military veteran and a longtime lawmaker with a strong foreign policy presence.
Biggest drawback: His foreign policy is clearly more hawkish than Trump’s. Cotton also issued a fairly strong denunciation of Trump and election denialism in the aftermath of the January 6 attacks. “It is time for the president to accept the results of the election, stop misleading the American people, and repudiate the mob violence,” Cotton said at the time.
Betting Lines: Given how important the events of January 6th are to Trump, it is hard to imagine that he would ignore them.
Main features: Scott may be the most practical choice, a black senator with a good reputation across nearly all segments of the party. Though Scott isn’t really a MAGA politician, Trump has expressed enthusiasm for his talents as a stooge. “I don’t think Tim Scott ran as well as he would have run on his own, but I wouldn’t believe him as my surrogate,” Trump said.
Biggest drawback: Scott was perhaps the most harmless candidate, but he underplayed and barely garnered support as a 2024 candidate, and the stage seemed much bigger than he was. Maybe he doesn’t matter as a running mate, but Trump seems aware of that.
Betting Lines: That’s Rubio and Vance level.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum
Main features: Levin’s report suggests there is great chemistry between Trump and Burgum. Trump has described Vance and Rubio as “brilliant,” while calling Burgum “incredible.” Burgum also has an enormous personal fortune (he spent $28,000 a vote on the 2024 campaign) and an ability to connect Trump with wealthy allies.
Biggest drawback: Burgum is arguably the most boring and unremarkable candidate on this list. The polar opposite of an inspiring choice, Trump is someone who relies on stage presence and charisma (as long as he doesn’t end up stealing the show).
Betting Lines: The most attractive potential candidate, but still a potential candidate. He is better suited for a Cabinet role.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY)
Main features: Given Haley’s case and the recent drop in the ratings of Arizona Senate candidate Kali Lake, Stefanik may be the front-runner if Trump were to choose a female running mate. (Former Trump White House press secretary and Arkansas governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders has also been mentioned.) She’s also young (39) and could serve as a bridge between Trump and Congress as a member of the House Republican leadership.
Biggest drawback: While many on this list have changed for the better in their views of Trump, Stefanik is almost a different person from when she first entered Congress as a relatively moderate establishment Republican. She has said all the right things recently in support of Trump, but one can’t help but wonder if Trump is worried she could become another Pence.
Betting Lines: It’s more than just a hidden gem.
Congressman Byron Donald (R-FL)
Main features: Like Scott, Donald could help Trump appeal to black voters, who are more likely to vote for a Republican presidential candidate than ever before in a modern presidential election. Donald also has broad support from the Republican establishment down to the House Freedom Caucus, as evidenced by the (limited) support he received as Speaker of the House.
Biggest drawback: He’s the least experienced candidate on this list, with just four years in the Florida Legislature, less than four years in the U.S. House of Representatives, and no statewide office. He’s also had legal troubles from his early years, including drug charges and bribery charges (he entered a diversion program for the former and had his record expunged for the latter). And of course, he has the same Florida residency issues as Rubio.
Betting Lines: While this may be an unthinkable choice for any candidate other than Trump, the Donald-Donald combination ticks several boxes and is perfectly You will receive a discount.
Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson
Main features: He and Trump have long had a good relationship, despite some skirmishes during the 2016 campaign, and Trump may see unique appeal to evangelicals and black voters, given his personal background as a prominent neurosurgeon.
Biggest drawback: Carson has long been relatively quiet and unremarkable during his time in the Trump administration, and though he garnered some attention during the 2016 presidential campaign, his sleepy style is a poor fit for Trump and may not work as well on the larger national stage.
Betting Lines: I’m quite skeptical about this.
