European election season is rarely an exciting time. In the five elections I’ve covered since 1999, Brussels was abuzz with activity. But the people who have the right to vote for their representatives in parliament didn’t seem to care much. To them, elections were at best a curiosity, at worst an inconvenience to be avoided.
This time is different. This year’s elections, taking place in all 27 member states from Thursday to Sunday, are capturing the attention of people across the European continent. I have seen their interest firsthand. Over the past few months, I have spoken to groups of students, experts and investors in the Netherlands, France, Switzerland, the Czech Republic and many other places, but the people I have spoken to most are ordinary citizens.
They listen intently, barely touching their phones. When it comes time for questions, many of them raise their hands. Everyone is interested in the bigger stories: whether Ukraine will join the European Union, what can be done to counter the rise of illiberalism, how can continental security be achieved, etc. Above all, they are interested in what Europe is and where it is heading.
What is going on? Why has politics in Brussels, once considered boring and technocratic, suddenly become almost sexy? The answer is as surprising as it is compelling. Europe’s democratic deficit is slowly disappearing as citizens are drawn into the continent’s politics. In the dark shadow of the rise of the far right, another, almost invisible, story is unfolding: Europe is coming alive again.
Notably, public support for EU membership is growing: In a recent poll of member states, 74% of respondents said they felt part of the EU, the highest level in more than 20 years. Two years ago, 72% said they had benefited from EU membership, up from 52% in 2005. But that doesn’t mean Europeans are suddenly jubilant about joining the EU. Unions and how they function. But they are clearly The European Union and beyond.
Voter turnout also appears to be increasing. Around 62% of the population voted in the first European Parliament elections in 1979, but turnout has steadily declined since then, dropping to just over 42% in 2014. But in 2019 it rose for the first time, to around 51%, and is likely to rise again this year, suggesting that the 2019 increase was not an anomaly but the beginning of a trend. One poll puts expected turnout at 68%, nine points higher than in the last elections.
This is not happening in a vacuum. It is a reaction to the fact that, in the words of former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, Europe is no longer surrounded by a “circle of friends” but a “ring of fire”. In recent years, the world around Europe has become unstable, threatening borders, peace and open economies. Brexit, Donald Trump’s election as US President and, especially, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have shaken Europeans to their core.
Feeling weak and defenseless, they turned to their leaders for protection. Their leaders, who make all the important decisions in Brussels, responded. They now understand that only by acting unitedly can they thwart Putin, manage the pandemic, and counter economic competition with China and the United States. To do so, they began to address issues such as European defense, health, and energy that had always been treated as strictly domestic issues.
Member states continue to have different opinions on how to deal with these issues. But European citizens find debates about weapons for Ukraine or pandemic funds more interesting than debates about a new EU communications package or child-friendly lighters. It is no wonder that talk shows, podcasts and columns about Europe have proliferated in recent years, as citizens use them to gather information and form opinions.
This completely changed public perception of European politics. For decades, people had seen Brussels as a place for technical negotiations full of jargon about quotas and chemicals directives. Of course, this was exactly the purpose of European integration: to depoliticize issues between member states and prevent them from escalating into war. The fights in Brussels over fishing and breakfast directives were signs of the Union’s success.
But as early as the 1960s, French historian Fernand Braudel warned that a cold, technocratic Europe could breed discontent. “To make a preponderance of clever proposals would be to misjudge human nature,” Braudel said. “They pale in comparison with the maniacal, not necessarily rash, enthusiasm that has animated Europe in the past.” Now, the intervention of Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, and Vladimir Putin is encouraging European leaders to finally get serious about issues that matter to their voters, such as joint arms procurement, digital strategies, and the rule of law.
These external shocks had another important effect: they convinced the far right to shelve their plans to leave the European Union. Leaders such as Marine Le Pen in France and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands realized they had too much to lose by leaving the EU on their own, choosing instead to follow the example of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in using EU membership as leverage in the European power struggle. We also saw Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni become one of Europe’s kingmakers after co-opting a post-fascist party into the mainstream.
Instead of blaming Brussels at home, far-right leaders are now on the European stage, hoping to change the system from within. In the words of economist Albert Hirschman, they have replaced the “leave” option with a “speak out” option. Of course, this could be bad news, as Europe’s centrist parties seem ill-prepared to deal with the challenge from the far right, both at the European and national levels.
But there’s a real silver lining to this development that few are talking about: populists are injecting drama into European politics. They’re bringing their insults, oversimplifications and fake news to Brussels. Already, far-right candidates’ participation in debates and far-right infighting are attracting a lot of attention. No wonder. It’s loud, mean and vulgar. It’s exactly the kind of drama continental politics has always played out at the national level, but never at the European level.
Some may balk at this spectacle. But that’s what democracy is about: a contest of political views played out before an interested public. I can’t guarantee that the disagreements and potential turmoil that will ensue will be to our liking. But it will at least draw citizens into action and inject some democratic spirit into the continent. Hopefully, Europe will make the most of this.
