Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, the Kremlin has been trying to play the nuclear card to intimidate Ukraine and block Western support. Kiev and its partners cannot ignore Moscow’s nuclear threat, but they should understand that the Russian leadership does not want a nuclear war.
From the start, Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to cast a nuclear shadow over Russia’s all-out invasion. Three days after Russian forces crossed Ukraine’s northern, eastern and southern borders, Putin said Russia’s nuclear forces were on “special combat readiness.” The Pentagon later noted that there had been no change in the status of Russia’s nuclear forces.
The Kremlin’s latest attempt to play the nuclear card came on May 6, when the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it would be conducting drills using non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons in Russia’s Southern Military District near the Ukrainian border. The Russian military has regularly conducted such nuclear drills in the past, with the only difference being that this one was announced in advance.
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Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Putin’s closest ally in Minsk, also got in on the action on May 7, announcing nuclear drills in Belarus. These weapons cannot be used without Moscow’s permission. Their deployment in Belarus is primarily a political gesture, providing no cover for targets that Moscow cannot hit from bases in Russia or its exclave, Kaliningrad.
The threat of nuclear weapons caused some alarm in the West, but not as much as the Kremlin hoped. No NATO combat troops participated in the battle, but no NATO combat troops were provided in the first place. Moreover, the threat delayed, but did not stop, the Western decision to provide Ukraine with even more advanced weapons. Ukraine has received long-range ATACMS and is due to receive F-16 fighter jets later this year. The prohibition on using Western-provided weapons to attack targets inside Russia is clearly weakening.
Putin’s nuclear threats reached a peak in September 2022, when after the Kremlin reportedly annexed parts of Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Oblasts, Putin asserted that Russia would “defend our land with all its forces and resources,” which analysts interpreted to include nuclear weapons.
These threats did not have the desired effect. Kiev, which sees the war as an existential issue, continued to attack Russian forces in four provinces that Putin claims as Russian territory. Western countries threatened “serious consequences” if Russia used a nuclear weapon and continued to flood Ukraine with weapons, but left it to Moscow to figure out what those consequences would be. China joined others in criticizing the nuclear tactics.
The Kremlin seemed to understand this, especially from the negative reactions from Beijing and other major capitals, and quickly backed off. In late October 2022, Putin denied the threat of using nuclear weapons and accused the West of trying to tarnish Russia’s reputation.
The following week, in early November, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the unacceptability of nuclear war, reiterating that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Later that month, Russia joined the G20 statement, noting that “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable.”
Since then, Putin has maintained a relatively calm attitude about nuclear threats. Russian television propagandists have not followed suit, often fantasizing about nuclear attacks on Europe without considering the potential repercussions for Russia. A former Russian official told me last fall that when it comes to nuclear rhetoric, the West should only look to Putin.
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It is hard to ignore nuclear threats, explicit or implicit, from the country with the largest nuclear arsenal. But let us not forget that Putin does not want a nuclear war. Such a conflict would open a Pandora’s box full of unpredictable, messy and potentially catastrophic consequences, including for Russia. Putin is trying to intimidate them by suggesting that he is more prepared to risk such a war than Ukraine and the West. They can choose not to be intimidated.
The comments from Moscow raise another concern: the difficulty of recognizing and interpreting true nuclear signals in the future. Putin may be the one to watch, but should we ignore Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, who frequently muses about nuclear weapons, as he did on May 31?
If the situation escalates and the Kremlin begins to seriously consider using nuclear weapons, we want a clear signal. Western leaders may not back down, but it is crucial that they understand the risks. The problem now is that with so much nuclear weapons discussion taking place in Moscow, any such signal may be drowned out in the noise. This should be of concern to both the Kremlin and the West.
Editor’s note: Opinions expressed in opinion columns are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kyiv Independent.
Steven Pifer
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine
