As previously strict limits on escalation have been abandoned to ensure Ukraine’s survival, one of the most sanctum from the start has been the ban on Western troops — a fundamental prohibition that seems more tenuous than ever now that France is considering sending military trainers.
If that were to happen, the consequences could be more severe and less predictable than if they had incrementally provided weapons systems that Kiev had so far denied. But there is no uniformity among Ukraine’s NATO allies on sending ground troops to Ukraine. And there are few signs so far that the few other European countries considering the decision, including France and smaller allies like Estonia and Lithuania, are considering how it might play out.
Washington, Berlin and other key partners in Ukraine’s defense rule out sending troops for two main reasons.
First, it means a dramatic escalation – not just heavy metal to shore up Ukraine’s defenses, but also personnel and possible casualties for European troops. Second, the political value of selling Kiev’s cause to Western audiences as a war in which Ukrainians alone made huge sacrifices to defend Europe itself from Russian aggression.
Biden’s determination to help Ukraine while avoiding World War III has produced restraint: He has delayed equipping Ukraine with long-range missiles, fighter jets, air defense systems, and other weapons that could bolster Kiev’s battlefield capabilities and save lives. But the president’s incrementalism exposes Moscow’s nuclear threats as an increasingly powerful Western armoury.
While several Western allies have conducted small training missions in Ukraine over the past two years, the mission now being considered by French President Emmanuel Macron seems more ambitious, more public and riskier, even if it would take the trainers farther from the front lines.
This is based on Macron’s belief that the West has a better shot at keeping Moscow guessing about what it is prepared to do than ruling out what it will not do. Macron appears to believe that by moving to a posture of “strategic ambiguity,” Ukraine’s allies can move beyond self-restraint and shift the burden of calculating the risks of escalation to Putin.
“It is difficult to imagine that Putin would deliberately want to engage in direct hostilities with NATO allies when those countries are not engaged in acts of war,” said Francois Heissbourg, a prominent French analyst who supports Macron’s approach.
The question is what will happen if Putin sees through Macron’s bluff, especially considering that the French president has done little to prepare his country’s public opinion for the return of body bags from Ukraine, not to mention the fact that most of France’s key NATO allies remain staunchly opposed to sending in troops and are unlikely to use French casualties to seek a more direct confrontation with Russia.
Indeed, if Russian forces are able to pinpoint the location of the French troops, Putin may see an attack on them as an opportunity not only to expose divisions in the West but also to humiliate Macron, who is now one of the most staunchly anti-Russian Western leaders.
“We support Ukraine,” Heisbourg told me. “Does that pose a risk? Yes, it does.”
France has a powerful military and is one of the world’s leading arms manufacturers, but it is unclear – and at this point, perhaps even the French themselves – what added value it can bring to Kiev’s battle-hardened military that has held off Putin’s onslaught for more than two years.
What is known is that despite Macron’s tough rhetoric, France has been slower to supply Ukraine with the weapons systems and munitions it most needs than many of Ukraine’s other NATO allies.
France has supplied a range of weaponry, including dozens of long-range SCALP missiles that played a key role in breaking Moscow’s blockade of Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea, but in terms of total bilateral military aid to Kiev, France ranks behind only the Netherlands, Denmark and Poland, not to mention bigger donors such as the United States, Germany and Britain.
Reports suggest Macron may announce plans to send military trainers to the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings on Thursday, when he will join Biden and other Western leaders in ceremonies marking the anniversary of the invasion. At a ceremony marking Allied unity, Macron would risk highlighting his isolation with few likely benefits.
