The Irish Sea border returns to Northern Ireland politics

The leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has made the Irish Sea border the centre of his election campaign in Northern Ireland.

It has been modified, simplified and repackaged in subsequent deals, but it still exists today.

Gavin Robinson, who became party leader this week, told the party: “We will continue to fight for the full restoration of Northern Ireland’s place within the UK, including the application of EU law in our country and the removal of the resulting Irish Sea border.”

Sir Geoffrey Donaldson, DUP leader at the time, said the UK-EU deal, and the accompanying agreement between the government and the DUP, “eliminates the border between Northern Ireland and the UK, which is hugely important”.

There is nuance if you look for it, and Sir Geoffrey acknowledged that the deal was not perfect, but the overall DUP message was effectively “the sea border is gone, let’s go back to Stormont, let’s move forward”.

Mr Robinson decided that this position was unsustainable in an election campaign where the agreement was challenged and overturned by Unionist rivals.

He acknowledged that the deal was overvalued and that more “cautious realism” was called for at the time.

Robinson has held the role since becoming interim leader of the DUP in March.

In an interview on BBC Talkback, he explained the nuances of the agreement in “boring detail”.

This appeared to be a move towards a more defensible position in the face of criticism of the agreement, some from within his own party.

“This is a tightrope election,” said John Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool.

“Voters may reward your honesty, or they may be a little frustrated.”

He said opinion polls showed that while the majority of DUP supporters were happy with a return to Stormont, a minority were not and that they were the target of the new approach.

“This is about a section of the DUP supporter base that is not happy with what has happened. It will seal the fate of the DUP in many constituencies,” he said.

The DUP alone cannot change the operation of the maritime border or the application of EU law in Northern Ireland.

A democratic consent vote on whether to end or continue the current arrangements is due to take place in Stormont in late 2024.

This is a simple majority vote, meaning that the non-coalition parties have enough seats to continue with the current system.

Stormont also has two “democratic consent mechanisms” that give it the power to recommend to the parliament to block new or updated EU rules from applying in Northern Ireland.

But ultimately it will be the UK Government’s decision.

It is possible that the new UK government could ask the EU to restart negotiations on a Northern Ireland Withdrawal Agreement, but Professor David Finmore, an expert at Queen’s University, says this is highly unlikely.

Regarding the current Northern Ireland Protocol, he said: “I don’t see any movement towards changing the Windsor Framework.”

“We have run out of room to negotiate with the EU. If there is to be any change, it will come through the wider EU-UK relationship.”

One of Labour’s clearest and most consistent policies is to seek a new deal on agricultural and food trade between the UK and the EU and to “abolish most of the border checks introduced by the Conservative Party’s Withdrawal Agreement”.

Such an agreement would in one fell swoop remove the most obvious physical effects of the Irish Sea border and potentially end some of its most cumbersome red tape.

Put simply, if the agreement ends checks on goods moving from Calais to Dover, it will also end checks on goods moving from Cairnryan to Belfast.

Agri-food trade from the EU falls into two broad categories: New Zealand-type and Swiss-type.

The Swiss-style arrangement is even more dramatic: since 2009 there have been no regulatory border controls on agricultural trade between Switzerland and the EU.

But Switzerland was only able to get this deal because it agreed to abide by EU rules more or less to the letter, and has little say in setting the rules.

Switzerland is obliged to adapt its laws in response to changes in EU law, a practice known as dynamic alignment.

When BBC NI asked Prime Minister Keir Starmer about the issue last year, he said: “I am not interested in any deal that puts the UK in the position of accepting rules. Our rules must be made in Westminster in the interest of the whole of the UK.”

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at consultancy Eurasia Group and a long-time Brexit follower, said an agri-food agreement would still be high on the agenda.

“A priority for a Starmer government will be to rebuild foreign and security policy cooperation with the EU, while also addressing the challenges arising from the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).”

“An agreement to reduce friction over agricultural goods is likely to be one of those priorities.”