Former President Donald Trump sits in Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on May 20, 2024. A jury on Thursday returned a verdict finding Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts.
Dave Sanders/The New York Times, via The Associated Press, Pool
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Dave Sanders/The New York Times, via The Associated Press, Pool
For the first time in American history, a former president has been convicted of a crime.
A New York jury has unanimously found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 charges of falsifying business records in order to influence the 2016 presidential election.
Amazingly, this is happening in a year when the former president is running for election back to his old job, which will undoubtedly have political repercussions.
“The real verdict will be given by the American people on November 5th,” Trump said outside the New York courtroom after the verdict.
“The only way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office is at the ballot box,” Biden campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said in a statement.
Well, they agree on one thing.
So what are the political ramifications of all this? Let’s take a closer look at the lessons from this important day in American history.
1. Donald Trump will still be the Republican nominee.
Technically, the Republican nominating convention hasn’t even happened yet. In theoryPlease choose another option.
But that’s not happening. Republicans are lining up behind Trump, from the Speaker of the House to a Trump ally auditioning for vice presidential nomination.
Trump has total control over the Republican National Committee and his allies in state parties across the country have put him in a stronger position within the GOP than he was in 2016, when he thwarted an attempted coup at the party’s convention by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and his allies.
This is Trump’s party. That’s it. He will be nominated by his party. Incredibly, this will happen just days after he is scheduled to be sentenced in this case (July 11th).
And he plans to run for office this November.
And to be clear, legal experts don’t believe Trump will go to prison because he has no criminal record. This crime could carry any punishment, from probation to house arrest, up to four years in prison.
It’s also not at all clear that Trump will lose his right to vote in Florida, despite his felony conviction.
Moreover, Trump plans to appeal, so even if the ruling is upheld, it could be months before any real impact is seen.
2. Yes, Trump’s base is likely to support him, but this is no longer a primary election.
Trump was able to raise a lot of money from the charges during the primary elections, during which he grew stronger with Republican support.
Now comes the real test, which is with the general election audience. There are some key questions:
- Will this belief resonate with persuadable voters in key battleground states?
- Will this help Biden in any way to rally support among struggling young voters, black voters, Latino voters, etc., who are cold towards Biden because of home prices, age, etc., but are they willing to vote for a “convicted felon” or will they sit on the sidelines or support a third party candidate?
- With voter turnout expected to be lower this year than four years ago, it will be particularly important to see whether this ruling boosts or discourages voter turnout. Several What about the general electorate who might vote for Trump, especially white voters without college degrees? They make up the core of Trump’s base, but their turnout has been lower than other demographics for years. Republicans will say absolutely not, that this will only energize his base.
The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll suggests most voters will remain unswayed either way. Some voters, including younger voters, may be slightly swayed, but this could be a reset moment for the race.
This is a historic moment in American history. Many Americans will be watching television right now to learn about the conviction. And the bottom line is that the last thing Trump wants is to see “Trump” and “convicted felon” in the same headline. And unless it’s overturned on appeal before the election, that’s what will be attached to Trump as voters consider their choice.
3. It’s up to Biden to use this politically.
The president has been very careful about what he says about Trump’s legal problems, making it difficult for the Biden team to make a breakthrough while Trump continues to dominate the news with full coverage of the trial.
Biden’s decision not to press Trump on his legal issues until after the verdict makes sense in one very important respect: He was the president and didn’t want to give the appearance of wrongdoing or to appear to be influencing the Justice Department’s federal investigation into Trump or state prosecutors.
That hasn’t stopped Trump and conservative media from saying exactly that, and worse, but Biden is likely to lean toward it given the ruling and that it will likely be the only court case Trump faces before the election, aside from the three other election-related lawsuits against Trump.
The line Biden must walk is between being president and being a candidate. The White House counsel’s office generally declined to comment, but the Biden campaign spoke out, noting that the New York incident shows “no one is above the law.”
Now Biden has a choice to make. And right now, he’s trailing a little bit in the race. So the question is not whether Biden will talk about conviction, but whether he can get it done and use it.
4. The ruling heightens the importance of upcoming key moments in the election campaign.
The challenge for Biden and Trump will be how to harness this to their respective benefits.
The attacks came swiftly and violently, with Trump and his surrogates denouncing the legitimacy of the verdict immediately after it was announced, and both campaigns quickly released statements and appealed for fundraising.
This is indicative of the fact that this is a presidential election year and there will be heightened attention on every front.
There will be some big moments coming up that will present both opportunity and risk for candidates.
- June 27: First, there’s a very early debate, agreed upon by both candidates, to take place in less than a month. Can Biden use it effectively? Can Trump protect himself without alienating centrist voters?
- July 15-18: The next milestone is the party conventions. Republicans will be holding their first convention in Milwaukee, just days after Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in the case. Trump and his campaign are expected to use the week to rally and unify their supporters and ensure there are no cracks in their base.
- August 19-22: Now it’s the Democrats’ turn in Chicago. Can Biden use the guilty verdict to strengthen his coalition, which now has gaping holes, and convince voters who continue to question his mental fitness that he is fit for the presidency? Let’s not forget that Democrats are also concerned about the protests, which could make the party appear divided.
- September 10: It’s the final debate, the start of the sprint to the finish line and perhaps the last big chance for either candidate to make their case. Early voting begins shortly thereafter.
The campaign will be working hard to get all the voters they think should vote for them to show up to the polls, and convicting Trump is going to be a very big part of the campaign going forward.
