Welcome to Opinion’s coverage of the guilty verdict in the Manhattan trial of Donald Trump. In this special feature, Times Opinion writers look back on this stunning development in American political history, the trial’s most significant moments and developments, and unpack the potential impact on the presidential election.
What was important?
Jamel Bouie I’m not a lawyer and I didn’t follow the entire trial, but if there was one thing that doomed Donald Trump, or at least hindered his efforts to avoid conviction, it was his utter disdain for the trial process and procedure. It’s hard to imagine that his constant attacks on the judge, the jury, and the trial itself helped him in any way. Jurors are obviously only asked to evaluate the evidence before them, but it’s too much to ask of anyone to sit through a case in which the defendant has publicly made you out to be the enemy.
Matthew Continetti What matters is that this lawsuit was filed. When Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg indicted Trump in April 2023, he not only established a dangerous precedent that local authorities could bring criminal charges against a former president, but also imposed the 2024 presidential election into the legal system, with unknown and potentially dangerous consequences. Bragg’s actions undermined faith in the rule of law and rallied Republican voters to Trump, helping him win the Republican nomination for the third consecutive term. Bragg didn’t defeat Trumpism, he resurrected it.
David French The prosecution had a compelling story. Trump didn’t want Stormy Daniels to release evidence in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape that showed he actually believed his celebrity gave him the right to do whatever he wanted with women. And because Trump hid the nature of the payments, the prosecutors could easily argue, at least to the jury, that Trump must have known the payments were legally problematic. Trials often depend on the side that can create the most coherent story, and the prosecution’s theory of the case was easy for the jury to understand.
Michelle Goldberg A mountain of evidence! While much of the discussion surrounding the trial was about whether Bragg was wise to file charges in the first place, the question before the court was much simpler: Did Trump do what he was accused of doing? The prosecution proved that he did. Meanwhile, Trump’s defense advanced the absurd claims that Trump never had sex with Stormy Daniels and that the $420,000 paid to Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen (one of the reasons Trump went to prison) was legitimate attorney’s fees. It would have been shocking if the jury had believed them.
Quinta Yurecic There is no way to know why the jury reached the verdict that it did. But throughout the trial, I was struck by how relentlessly Trump’s defense team pursued arguments and questions that they did not believe would help their case. For example, Todd Blanche repeatedly insisted that Trump never slept with Stormy Daniels, a denial that weakened Trump’s case. These defense tactics seemed designed to appease Trump’s own vanity and frustration, but even if they may have satisfied his client, they are unlikely to have helped his case to the jury.
Daniel McCarthy A dizzying number of charges and little dispute over the core facts of the case That meant the prosecutors only had to make the jury question Trump’s motives. Judge Juan Marchan’s instructions were so broad that they gave the jury multiple opportunities to find Trump guilty, and they did.
Kristen Soltis Anderson When faced with a legal problem, focusing on winning the political battle or the communications battle won’t do you much good: the law doesn’t necessarily care about public opinion.
Will this have an impact on the 2024 election?
Bouillet While it remains to be seen whether a conviction would have a significant impact on the 2024 presidential election, it is safe to say that no presidential candidate wants to be a felon. Rather, I suspect that Trump’s conviction will be part of the background radiation of a scandal that could irreparably weaken him. But one thing I know for sure is that the conviction is another example of a fundamental truth of the Trump era: that it is not institutions or guardrails that have held the former president back, but ordinary Americans who did not hesitate to hold him accountable when they had the chance.
Continetti By November, we will be talking about different things. If there is one thing we know about Trump, it is that he is good at changing the topic. More importantly, despite President Biden’s efforts to shift the focus of his campaign to Trump’s rhetoric and actions, the 2024 election is not about the former president. It is about the incumbent president’s performance in office. Voters will decide Biden’s fate based on their perception of the economy, the southern border, and America’s global standing. A guilty verdict will not make prices lower, fewer people cross the border, or make the world a safer place.
French Yes, there will be an impact. Biden’s main weakness is the uninformed electorate. If there’s any news story that penetrates even the most apathetic public, it’s the headline “Trump Guilty on All Charges.” Of course, MAGA will double down on Trump’s support, and some uninformed voters will think the prosecution is political, but Trump is now a felon, and that matters. We can’t expect the dam of public opinion to break and wash Trump away, but it will hurt his support, and in a close election, even a small drop matters.
Goldberg I suspect it will be a small change. A recent New York Times/Siena poll of swing state voters showed that a majority did not expect a conviction, so it may come as a shock to some voters. Trump supporters will easily justify voting for a felon, but if this election is as close as the last two, even a small change among wavering voters could have a big impact.
Yurechic Trump has a strong base of support that may be galvanized by his conviction. But that alone won’t be enough to win the election. Instead, his fate will depend on his less fervent supporters — voters who might otherwise vote Republican but are fed up with his incivility. The verdict highlights all the aspects of Trump that those voters find objectionable: his erratic behavior, his constant scandals. If the conviction hurts Trump, it’s because a small but significant number of people in battleground states are reluctant to vote for a felon.
McCarthy By infuriating Trump supporters, the sentence will strengthen Trump, and voters who have doubts about the justice system may become more sympathetic to him as a result. Trump now looks more like an outsider and a traitor. The penalty may hinder Trump’s campaign, but I expect the race to remain fierce and get even more heated.
Soltis Anderson The impact may be minimal. Voters who strongly dislike Trump will be pleased by the verdict, but it won’t change anything because they never intended to vote for Trump in the first place. Voters who support Trump will not be surprised by a guilty verdict because they have viewed the trial as political from the beginning. I think the sentencing will have a big impact on the few persuadable voters because Americans will have to make a choice about whether to vote for someone who could potentially go to prison.
Jamelle Bouie, David French and Michelle Goldberg are columnists for The Times.
Matthew Continetti is author of The Right: The Hundred Year War for American Conservatism.
Quinta Juresic is a contributing writer for The Atlantic, a governance fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a senior editor at Lawfare magazine.
Daniel McCarthy is editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.
Kristen Soltis Anderson is a contributing opinion writer for The New York Times, a Republican pollster, speaker, commentator and author of “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (And How Republicans Can Catch Up).”
