The verdict in former President Donald J. Trump’s criminal trial will remain a mystery for at least a few more days. What Trump will say and do after the verdict is handed down, whatever the outcome, is not so much of a mystery.
If past examples are any indication, even if he is completely acquitted, Trump will likely be angry and vengeful, attacking all those he sees as responsible for the Manhattan District Attorney’s prosecution. He will continue his public attacks at rallies and on Truth Social, and will privately urge his Republican allies in the House to issue subpoenas to his Democratic opponents.
The pattern is well established: After Mr. Trump twice escaped impeachment and survived special counsel Robert S. Mueller’s investigation into ties between the 2016 election and Russia, he immediately went into revenge mode, complaining about the injustices he had been forced to endure and urging his allies to investigate the investigators.
“Whatever the outcome, the approach will be the same,” said Alyssa Farah Griffin, Trump’s former White House communications director, who started working for him shortly after the first impeachment trial but has since become a harsh critic of her former boss.
Trump’s team is still deciding what its plans are for after the trial ends, but that timing is up to the jury to decide.
It’s unclear how much public interest is behind Trump’s trial over allegations that he falsified business records to hide payments to porn stars during the 2016 presidential election. Trump advisers have been running private polls to gauge public opinion throughout the trial, and they haven’t shown any significant drop in his support, even during the most intense days of testimony, according to a person familiar with the data. Polls also suggest the race is relatively stable.
But the verdict could change that. Polls suggest a guilty verdict might turn some voters against Trump, but even his staunchest opponents have little confidence that would happen. And with Trump already leading President Biden in polls in most of the deciding states, a result elsewhere could give him a boost.
“An acquittal or mismatched verdict would be a real opportunity for Trump and one that would resonate with a lot of people,” Griffin said. “He doesn’t want to be convicted for a variety of reasons, but I think he realizes there are ways to turn this into a political momentum.”
Some former staffers who spent time with Trump after the earlier investigations said he was in no celebratory mood after these so-called victories, but rather sought retribution.
Shortly after Mueller’s report was released, Trump called for punishment of those who led the investigation. Attorney General William P. Barr appointed special counsel John Durham to investigate the intelligence and law enforcement officials behind the probe. But Durham’s investigation came too late for Trump. Trump wanted to indict his opponents quickly, according to people who worked in the administration and were not authorized to speak publicly. That never happened.
After surviving his first impeachment in early 2020 for trying to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Biden and his son Hunter, Trump was in such a bad mood that aides were surprised by his relief that the incident was over. A person with direct knowledge of the incident said Trump was sitting in a private dining room adjacent to the Oval Office, grimacing at a television and yelling expletives.
Trump often dwells on his wounds for longer than necessary. “Generally speaking, he has no ability to accept victory, even when it would be to his advantage,” Griffin said.
On the morning of February 6, 2020, the day after the Republican-controlled Senate voted to acquit President Trump on both articles of impeachment, what should have been a morning of relief and celebration, President Trump appeared furious.
At the National Prayer Breakfast, Trump embodied the Old Testament teaching of “an eye for an eye,” which he said is his favorite teaching in the Bible. With pursed lips, he blasted the Democrats who impeached him, waving the day’s newspaper above his head and saying “not guilty.”
Trump conveyed the same frustration and urgency for revenge after his second impeachment, reviewing the list of the 10 Republican House members who voted for impeachment and the seven Republican senators who voted to convict and publicly and violently attacking them.
Of the 10 impeachment voters, eight are no longer in Congress, including Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, who was at the top of Trump’s list, having either lost primaries to pro-Trump candidates or been forced into retirement.
“Two down, eight to go!” Trump said in his usual statement, congratulating Adam Kinzinger, one of the House Republicans who voted in favor of impeachment, on his retirement.
The retaliation could be more severe if Trump retakes the White House next year. Trump has already said, without evidence, that he holds Biden personally responsible for all 88 criminal charges brought against him in four jurisdictions, and has promised that if he returns to office, he will “appoint a real special counsel to pursue the most corrupt president in the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the entire Biden crime family.”
The trial’s verdict comes in the middle of a presidential election campaign, which could set new trends in the years to come, especially if Trump is acquitted, said John R. Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser and a fierce critic of his former boss.
“Trump will express hurt feelings that he had to put up with it because if they hadn’t gone through with it, it would have been nothing,” Bolton said, who predicted that whatever the verdict, Trump would blame Biden.
Trump has already taken aim at many targets. He has publicly attacked Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who filed the charges, the judge overseeing the case, Juan M. Marchan, Marchan’s daughter, who served as a Democratic consultant, and members of the prosecution team for repeatedly violating a gag order imposed by the judge.
Trump’s allies, including his former chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, are calling on House Republicans to begin issuing subpoenas to people connected to the various prosecutions against Trump, all of which they allege without evidence are part of a broader criminal conspiracy against the former president orchestrated by Biden.
“This criminal indictment in New York is part of President Biden’s legal challenge to President Trump and his interference in the election,” said Mike Davis, a Republican lawyer and staunch Trump ally.
“The next step is for the House Judiciary Committee, including the Weaponization Subcommittee, to aggressively issue subpoenas for documents and witnesses,” he said.
Trump campaign official Steven Chang echoed the theme of “weaponized” justice in a statement, saying “President Trump is innocent, and the American people know it.”
