Putin is clearly trying to test NATO’s resolve to defend the Baltic states and Finland under Article 5 collective security. He is trying to undermine, push the boundaries and test the sovereignty of the Baltic states with these malign actions. He is also trying to use crisis to exert influence. Putin is trying to create a crisis in the Baltic states.
This is now evident with the looming specter of a maritime border dispute between Russia and Finland/Lithuania, and now a similar territorial dispute with Estonia over the Narva River, and air traffic to the Baltic states has been disrupted in recent months.
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Would Russia really invade the Baltic states? Putin wants us to think that it would. We shouldn’t deny it. Russia would lose a war with NATO in no time. He knows it, but he wants leverage to extract concessions elsewhere.
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NATO must now respond strongly and with determination to defend the Baltic states and Finland. NATO allies should deploy more assets to the Baltic states and Finland, perhaps with Turkey joining in the effort.
It also comes at a time when China is testing Taiwan’s defenses, and I believe Putin is trying to distract from that and get away with blurring borders and sovereignty in the Baltic Sea.
This is precisely what creates a crisis.
Other topics of interest
EU condemns Russia’s removal of Estonian border signs as ‘unacceptable’
Estonia said on Thursday that Russian border guards had removed buoys from the Narva River, which separates the two neighbours, in a pre-dawn operation.
It is worth noting that this is a) a message to Putin that he has cleaned out the Ministry of Defense, hired Belousov, and is ready/able to put the Russian economy on a full war footing in preparation for a long war in Ukraine, and b) following the Xi-Putin summit, Putin was trying to reinforce the point made in a) above about China supporting Russia’s war economy.
As President Putin prepares for meetings with Western countries, Biden and Trump, over the Ukraine issue, it seems to me that he wants to exert maximum influence in those meetings.
Ukraine may not be ready for such negotiations, but if Trump wins in November, it could come to the table in terms of finances and resources. I believe the Biden administration is trying to get the $61 billion in aid for Ukraine through as soon as possible. And this new $50 billion commitment on frozen Russian assets is also part of the process to protect Ukraine from Trump and give it maximum leverage in future peace negotiations.
And I think there are a lot of changes happening right now, including the move by the United States to authorize the use of weapons to attack Russia, and talk of extending some kind of air defense umbrella from missile defense within NATO to parts of Ukrainian territory.
Republished from the author’s @tashecon blog. Read the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Kyiv Post.
