Today is Thursday, and you know what that means.
Every week during the fantasy baseball season, we produce stock reports on players who are rising or falling in value. If there’s a particular player you’d like me to take a closer look at, feel free to tag me. twitter.
Now, without further ado, let’s get down to business. Here are some fantasy baseball players on the rise and some on the decline.
Fantasy Baseball Stock Report (Week 9)
stock up
Jalen Duran (Outfielder – BOS)
Jarren Duran and teammate Rafael Devers were both on fire last week. Unfortunately, the Red Sox weren’t able to pull off many wins. Over the past two weeks, Duran has tied Marcell Ozuna and Corey Seager for the 11th-highest ISO in MLB. The 27-year-old has hit three triples in that same span, more than any other hitter.
He’s been a fantasy treasure trove lately with his ability to generate points. With players like Devers or Tyler O’Neill hitting after him in Boston’s order, he’s likely to score runs. He’s tied for 20th in the league with 30 points per game. This, plus the combination of speed and power he’s shown recently, makes him someone you’ll want to add to your fantasy team.
Seth Lugo (SP – KC)
You don’t often hear the name Seth Lugo. There are probably many baseball fans who don’t even know what team he plays for. Still, he was one of the best pitchers in the league in May, and I think there are several reasons for that.
A major factor is his schedule. He’s been great in four of his last five starts, but those were against the Athletics, Angels, Blue Jays and Tigers. He had one game against Milwaukee in between that was good, but not great, so I think the schedule plays a part in his success. That said, Lugo had the fifth-lowest xFIP (2.30) and fifth-highest K/9 (11.52) in May.
Lugo also has an incredibly high 91.5% left on base percentage, meaning he’s been lucky that the runners he allowed weren’t there to score. That mark is the 13th-highest among pitchers who qualified in May. Overall, Lugo’s numbers show he’s very good, but he’s also been lucky.
Matt Chapman (3B – SF)
Matt Chapman has regained his form over the last five games. During this period, he has 11 hits in 18 at bats (.611 batting average). As expected, he dominated the pitching staff in his third straight game against the Rockies, but against Pittsburgh he hit a home run for the second game in a row and hasn’t lost any momentum.
San Francisco has seen an overall improvement in their offense over the past few weeks, with Chapman playing a key role in the lineup. The Giants rank sixth in wRC+ (117) and ninth in wOBA (.328) over this span. Chapman leads the team in stolen bases with five this season, but that doesn’t mean much, as the Giants have the fewest stolen bases in the league with 16. Still, Chapman is the team’s leading scorer and is a player to watch, especially now that he’s on a roll.
stock price decline
George Springer (Outfielder, DH – TOR)
Statistically, George Springer is one of the worst hitters in May. Because of this, Toronto moved him to the bottom of the batting order and replaced him with Davis Schneider. So far this month, Springer has the third-lowest wRC+ (26), third-lowest wOBA (.199) and third-lowest ISO (0.39).
The batted ball profile is also of interest. He had the third-highest ground ball success rate in May (59.5%) and is at 53.3% so far this season, a big change from the 45.3% he recorded over his 11-year career. Now at 34 years old, it’s natural to wonder if we’ll see the same Springer we’re used to seeing.
Bailey Falter (SP – PIT)
Bailey Falter’s game record seems concerning, especially considering that two of his last four starts have come against Colorado and Oakland. So far in the month of May alone, Falter has been the worst starting pitcher in the league. His xFIP (5.83) and K/9 (2.84) are last place. His strikeout rate is very worrying. For the entire season, he also ranks last with just 5.12 batters faced per nine innings.
Strikeouts are a nuisance for pitchers, and Falter has struggled to keep the ball in the yard this year. Allowing multiple base runners and multiple home runs is not a winning recipe for success. Hopefully, the talent of the Pirates’ young pitchers can offset some of the struggles we’ve seen in the rotation.
Brendan Rodgers (2B – COL)
Brendan Rodgers was ice-cold when he stepped into the bat in May and didn’t produce much throughout the season. He posted his ninth-lowest in ISO (0.76) and his 14th-lowest in wRC+ (67) this year. In May alone, his power numbers were at the bottom of the league, and like Springer, he hasn’t been able to get the ball into the air. His ground ball success rate in May was 56.9%, the ninth highest.
Colorado as a whole is struggling, and a lot of that is due to their pitching, but it’s alarming that a regular player like Rodgers makes such weak contact while playing half the games at Coors Field. That’s true.
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