British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Wednesday placed the fate of his embattled Conservative Party in the hands of a restless British public, who appear to want change after 14 years in Conservative government, and announced the Fourth of July A snap general election was called.
Mr Sunak’s surprise announcement, made from a rain-soaked podium outside 10 Downing Street, marked the end of six weeks of intense elections that will judge the party that has led Britain since the days of former president Barack Obama. It became the signal gun of war. But the Conservative Party has sacked four prime ministers in eight years amid the turmoil of Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic and the cost of living crisis.
For the past 18 months, the opposition Labor Party has been leading by double digits in most opinion polls, and defeat for the Conservatives has taken on an air of inevitability. Despite this, Mr Sunak said there had been enough good news in Britain in recent days, including signs of new economic growth and the lowest inflation rate in three years, to allow his party to cling to power. I am calculating that it may be possible.
“It’s time for Britain to choose its future,” Mr Sunak said, his suit soaking wet from persistent rain. “We have to choose in this election who has that plan.”
Political analysts, opposition leaders and members of Mr Sunak’s own party agree that the Himalayas are the mountain he must climb in the election. Burdened by a recession, soaring prices, a disastrous foray into trickle-down tax cuts, and a spate of scandals and fraud, the Conservative Party has appeared exhausted and adrift in recent years, torn by bitter infighting and fatalism about the future. appear.
“The Conservative Party is facing a kind of extinction-level situation,” said Matthew Goodwin, a political science professor at the University of Kent who has advised Boris Johnson and other party leaders. “They are likely to suffer an even bigger defeat than the one against Tony Blair in 1997.”
Other political analysts are more cautious, with some pointing out that in 1992 Prime Minister John Major’s Conservative government overcame a large poll deficit to narrowly win and remain in power.
But since the Conservatives won a landslide victory in the 2019 election on the slogan “Get Brexit Done,” they have been able to appeal to young people, traditional Tory voters in the south and south-west of England, and above all to the industrial sector. It lost support from working-class voters in the Midlands. And in the north of England, support in 2019 was key to then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s landmark victory.
Many are disillusioned with Mr Johnson, who was forced to resign over scandals including a Downing Street party that breached coronavirus lockdown rules. And her successor, Liz Truss, who was ousted after just 44 days over a tax cut proposal that rocked financial markets, caused the pound to collapse and ruined the party’s reputation for economic prowess, has many more people. is disillusioned.
Mr Sunak, 44, has been quick to stabilize markets and run a more stable government than his predecessor, but critics say he has never developed a convincing strategy to reinvigorate the country’s growth. It points out that there is no. He has also failed to deliver on two pledges to cut waiting times in the UK’s National Health Service and stop the flow of small boats ferrying refugees across the English Channel.
Many voters in areas known as “red wall” areas due to the tone of Labour’s campaign appear ready to return to their political roots within the party. Under the leadership of the less charismatic but effective Keir Starmer, Labor has shaken off the shadow of its left-wing predecessor Jeremy Corbyn. Mr Starmer, a former government prosecutor, systematically reformed the Labor Party, expelling Mr Corbyn’s allies, eradicating the party’s legacy of anti-Semitism and pulling economic policy more centrist.
Under British law, Mr Sunak must call a general election by January 2025. Political analysts had expected Mr Sunak to wait until the autumn to give the economy more time to recover. But after Wednesday’s announcement that inflation had fallen to 2.3% a year, just above the Bank of England’s 2% target rate, he may have been betting that the economic news would be as good as it could be. . .
Mr Sunak may also be calculating that the government can get the first planes carrying asylum seekers to Rwanda next month, which would enable him to claim progress on another key priority: stemming the flow of small boats carrying asylum seekers across the English Channel.
The Rwanda policy, which forcibly returns asylum seekers to the African country without first hearing their cases, has been condemned by human rights activists, the courts and opposition leaders and has led to numerous lawsuits. But its popularity with the Conservative base has led Sunak to make it a central part of his government’s policy platform.
For Mr Sunak, the son of Indian parents who emigrated from British East Africa 60 years ago, the decision to vote earlier than expected was not entirely unexpected. In July 2022, Mr Sunak broke with Mr Johnson when he resigned as Chancellor of the Exchequer, leading to a loss of cabinet support and ultimately Mr Johnson’s resignation from government.
Mr Sunak then actively campaigned for leadership, losing to Mr Truss in a vote of around 170,000 party members. After Mr Truss’s economic policies backfired and forced his resignation, Mr Sunak re-emerged, this time winning a competition held exclusively for Conservative MPs.
Mr Sunak inherited a difficult set of problems: job losses, a sluggish economy and rising interest rates that trickled down to people in the form of rising mortgage rates. In Britain’s National Health Service, which has been battered by years of austerity, waiting times have stretched into weeks and months.
Mr Sunak achieved some early successes, including an agreement with the European Union that largely ended the trade impasse over Northern Ireland. He exceeded his goal of halving inflation, which was 11.1% when he took office in October 2022. There are also signs that the economy is starting to improve.
Britain unexpectedly emerged strongly from a mild recession earlier this year, with the economy growing by 0.6%. The International Monetary Fund has revised up its forecast for UK economic growth this year, praising the efforts of the government and central bank.
But it may be a narrow window of good news. Inflation is expected to rise again in the second half of the year, and April’s reading was not as low as economists had expected. That has led investors to rethink how quickly the Bank of England will cut rates, all but ruling out a cut next month. Even hopes of a rate cut in August have receded.
At the same time, the scope for further tax cuts before the election worsened. Data released on Wednesday showed that public borrowing is increasing. And the IMF this week said the government opposes tax cuts, arguing that while Britain needs to stabilize its public debt, there is huge demand for increased public spending and investment to improve public services such as health care. warned.
Ultimately, analysts say it is these developments that will drive Sunak’s decision to appeal to voters now, and these issues will determine his and his party’s political fate.
“You can talk about party gates and trusses,” said Tim Bale, a political science professor at Queen Mary University of London, referring to Mr Johnson’s lockdown-breaking social gatherings. “But ultimately, the deciding factor in this election is anemic economic growth and a nation that is crumbling before our eyes.”
Eshe Nelson contributed to the report.
