If you had imagined Donald Trump’s first criminal trial a few years ago, you would have imagined the biggest, flashiest story in the world. Instead, there’s a strange sense of anticlimax hanging over the whole case as we teeter toward a verdict that will brand the Republican candidate a felon and potentially send him to prison.
In a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, only 16% said they were watching the trial very closely, and a further 32% said they were watching the trial “somewhat” closely. “These numbers are among the lowest of any recent news event,” Yahoo News’ Andrew Romano wrote. When asked how they felt about the trial, the most common response was “boredom.” Television ratings tell a similar story. “Network coverage of Donald Trump’s hush money trial has failed to generate blockbuster ratings,” Deadline reported in late April. According to Deadline, the cable news network’s ratings among the 25- to 54-year-old demographic were down compared to the same period last year. At the courthouse last week, I met news geeks who were lining up at 3 a.m. to secure seats in court and take selfies with their favorite MSNBC personalities, but I didn’t see them as superfans so much as subcultures. I felt like I had wandered into the fandom of The Heart of the Zeitgeist. You wouldn’t notice anything out of the ordinary happening a block away.
Perhaps the trial would have received more national attention if it had been televised, but the lack of footage alone does not explain why Americans collectively shrugged their shoulders. There were no images in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report, but once the report was released, famous actors such as Robert De Niro, Rosie Perez, and Laurence Fishburne appeared in videos explaining the report. did. I am unaware of any similar efforts to dramatize testimony from this trial, and I have rarely heard the public talking about it. “Saturday Night Live” attempted to satirize the courtroom scene last weekend by cruelly mocking Trump’s appearance with reporters in the hallway, but ended with an acknowledgment of national fatigue. When my ordeal is over, all you have to do is vote for me and everything will disappear. ”
It wasn’t a particularly funny line, but it states a truth that helps explain why this historic trial doesn’t seem like such a big deal. When Trump was president, his opponents toyed with lawyers and prosecutors, many in ways that were humiliating in retrospect, because liberals believed they could bind Trump by law. Because it was. But that faith is becoming increasingly impossible to maintain.
Mueller teased a question about whether President Trump obstructed justice by trying to obstruct the Russia investigation. Although the jury in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case found that he had committed sexual abuse, it had little noticeable effect on his political future. The highly partisan Supreme Court is still considering a ruling on his claims of near-executive privilege, making it highly unlikely that he will be tried before the election for the attempted coup. A highly partisan judge appointed by President Trump has indefinitely postponed a trial on charges of stealing classified documents. Trump’s election interference case in Georgia is tied to an appeal over whether District Attorney Fani Willis should be disqualified over an affair with a member of his team, and some expect the trial to begin before 2025. However, few expect it to begin by 2029 if Trump wins the election. And there is little question that if he were to become president again, he would completely invalidate the federal lawsuit against him.
In theory, delays in Trump’s other criminal cases should raise the stakes in the New York trial. Because this is President Trump’s only chance to be tried for massive corruption before November. But in reality, his record of impunity not only gives him immense credibility among his supporters, but also creates a certain fatalism in his opponents. A recent New York Times/Siena poll found that 53% of voters in battleground states said it was somewhat or very unlikely that Trump would be convicted. This included 66% of Republicans as well as 42% of Democrats.
These voters may be exaggerating the likelihood that Trump will be acquitted. Many legal experts believe the prosecution has an advantage. The hopeful possibility, then, is that a guilty verdict would be a shock to many Americans who have been away from the news cycle, and who may perhaps balk at putting a criminal in the White House. But I don’t count on that. In some polls, a small but significant share of Trump supporters told pollsters they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he were a felon, but if recent history is any guide, , the majority of Trump supporters would easily rationalize a conviction. Trump’s henchmen have already worked hard to discredit the trial, with House Speaker Mike Johnson calling it “rigged” and “a sham.” It may be recalled that the recent embarrassing tirade on the House Oversight Committee, in which Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene insulted her Democratic colleagues, began with Greene making an innuendo about the daughter of a judge in a New York case. Worth it.
Of course, no matter what Republicans say, Trump could face prison time if he loses this case. But if that happens, he will inevitably appeal, meaning he has little chance of being jailed by election day. No wonder, then, that most people ignore the twists and turns of this trial. Whether Trump really reverses his vote will be up to voters, not juries.
