Is Volodymyr Zelensky still the legitimate president of Ukraine?

Had it not been for the escalation of war, Ukraine would have had presidential elections scheduled for March this year.

It wasn’t.

Was it possible that incumbent President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would emerge as the winner after five years in power? Demonstrating to the world his inability or lack of will to fight the corruption that is consuming the country, in war as well as in peacetime? Was he able to win after that?

History does not know the word “if,” so there is no possibility of a definitive answer. But I suspect that President Zelenskiy himself was aware of the possibility of failure, which explains why the Ukrainian elections were not scheduled as scheduled, and why there are no plans to hold them any time soon. It may be explained.

In January, as all of Ukraine was waiting for news from parliament on a much-needed aid bill, President Zelenskiy announced that he was not delaying the elections, but that he was unable to hold them because of martial law in Ukraine. I made it clear. Martial law is not expected to be lifted until August 11th at the earliest. In an interview with Britain’s Channel 4 News on January 20, he stressed that holding elections during wartime is legally prohibited.

Zelenskiy’s answers to the interview sparked a heated discussion both in mainstream media and on social networks. Many political analysts and commentators highlighted the contradiction between martial law and the Ukrainian constitution. It was agreed that the constitutional court should be the forum to resolve this dispute.

Instead, on February 25, President Zelenskiy said that the opposition’s demands for early presidential elections were part of a planned ideological sabotage by the Kremlin. President Zelenskiy branded the election a “bad idea” but added: “I think this is an act of betrayal in Ukraine.”

Charges of treason have serious implications during wartime. Nevertheless, this did not deter those advocating a presidential election. Mr. Zelensky’s political opponents are increasingly calling for his term as president to end on May 20, casting doubt on the legitimacy of his continued presidency.

Justice Minister Denis Mariuska tried to prevent the political boat from rocking. In an interview with BBC News Ukrainian on May 10, he said now was not the right time to seek clarification from the Constitutional Court.

“Such appeals represent legitimate questions and doubts, which warrant resolution by the Constitutional Court,” he said. “Given this country’s communications and security challenges, it would be a grave mistake to publicly question the president’s authority.”

He acknowledged that “there may be considerable debate and criticism,” but made it clear that authorities had no intention of taking “debate or criticism” into account.

Although I do not support the idea of ​​holding elections immediately, I believe that President Zelenskiy’s decision not to seek intervention from the Constitutional Court poses serious risks both to himself and to all of Ukraine.

Questions over the powers of Ukraine’s president have led world leaders to believe that he is a lame duck and is the main obstacle to finding a compromise solution to the ongoing war in Europe. may be exposed. The concept of applying oil to calm the waters and smooth things out is becoming attractive to a growing number of leaders around the world.

The main sponsors of the peace talks are Turkey and China, allies of Russia and firmly on President Putin’s side. This “peace” would allow Russia to maintain control of territory it had captured in previous wars. This spring, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Chinese leader Xi Jinping significantly stepped up diplomatic efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine.

The initiative has also been endorsed in some parts of Europe, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán supporting the so-called China Peace Plan. French President Emmanuel Macron has said he aims for an “Olympic truce” during the 2024 Olympics, which will be held in Paris from July 26 to August 11. In June, an international conference aimed at achieving peace will be held in Switzerland and in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, domestic pressure has made Mr. Zelensky unable to negotiate with Mr. Putin. Such a meeting could spark mass protests in Ukraine and lead to the overthrow of the president. His hard-line stance could prove unpalatable to key players, who could use the issue of Mr. Zelensky’s political legitimacy to oust him and replace him with someone more manageable. You might expect it to happen.

Russia’s new offensive has made Ukraine even more dependent on Western military and financial aid, giving his backers greater influence over the Ukrainian president. His legitimacy confirmed by the Constitutional Court protects him from accusations of usurpation and demands for immediate presidential elections.

Political stability is the most important issue for a country whose borders face relentless attack by enemy forces, but so is political legitimacy. Without it, Mr. Zelensky, who learned little about diplomacy and compromise during years of war, may never get the chance to do better for his country.

Sergei Maidukov is a Ukrainian writer and author of the following books: life on the run and A deadly bond. Follow @sergeymaidukov on Instagram.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.