Opinion: The dark side of the glowing aurora borealis

Editor’s note: Bob Kolasky is senior vice president of critical infrastructure at Exiger, a provider of supply chain and third-party risk analysis for the U.S. government and critical infrastructure industries. He is also a senior research fellow at Auburn University’s McCrary Institute for Cyber ​​Infrastructure Security. He previously led the National Risk Management Center at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). The views expressed in this commentary are his own.See more opinion On CNN.

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Last weekend, we witnessed a visual representation of the cosmos’ enormous scale and spectacular nature, and the skies were in the spotlight. The display of the aurora borealis, which can be seen over a much wider area than usual, captured the imagination of millions of people around the world, with posts flooding social media reveling in the beauty of the aurora borealis.

However, the first severe geomagnetic storm watch issued in nearly 20 years has garnered widespread attention from homeland security, emergency management, and business continuity experts, raising concerns that this “extreme” solar storm could have significant impacts. I wondered if it was a “big thing”. and potentially catastrophic space weather events.

For more than a decade, security professionals in U.S. government agencies and the emergency management and critical infrastructure industries have increasingly focused on the risk of geomagnetic storms, or space weather, a term that many Americans have become newly familiar with. Now you can.

Magnetic storms caused by energy emitted by the sun can disrupt the Earth’s magnetic field, resulting in electrical currents that can disrupt or damage the system. Severe storms can disrupt power and water services, ground flights, halt public transportation, and close gas stations.

In recent years, intensive efforts have been made to harden power, communications, transportation, and space infrastructure against the threat of space weather impacts that can cause long-term degradation of services around critical functions. Masu.

That preparation, along with how this particular geomagnetic “superstorm” unfolded, reportedly helped minimize the impact felt across critical infrastructure across the country over the weekend. The storm kept grid operators “busy” maintaining “adequately regulated current flow,” according to the report. ” Other impact reports included changes to the Global Positioning System (GPS) felt in the agricultural sector and “deterioration of radio communications from airlines and shipping lines.”

National resilience efforts should be commended, including power system operators who prepare for adverse events and respond quickly when they occur. However, this time fortunately the circumstances aligned, but next time we will realize how serious these effects can be and we will take more serious measures with potentially devastating consequences. We need to prepare for space weather events.

This confirms the need for the new National Security Memorandum on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (NSM 22), which President Joe Biden signed at the end of April. The policy reinforced the importance of public-private collaboration to strengthen the nation’s critical infrastructure in a risk-based manner, leveraging infrastructure investments and regulatory requirements to enhance safety and resilience.

Risks driving the need for NSM 22 include risks posed by geomagnetic phenomena. In geomagnetic phenomena, bursts of energy from the sun generate electrical currents that can have serious effects on critical infrastructure systems. Policymakers are particularly concerned about the so-called cascading effects that space weather can cause.

For example, damage to satellite systems can reduce real-time navigation capabilities and have a disproportionate impact on transportation systems, especially aviation. Alternatively, the pulse shocks of a geomagnetic storm could overload components of the power grid’s core infrastructure, resulting in the shutdown of parts of the entire power grid in a way that is difficult to recover, with long-term power impacts. Functions of water systems and hospitals.

Although both scenarios are realistic, they are considered rare and are therefore often referred to as “low-probability, high-consequence” events. Resilience planning requires consideration of such events, which have little historical precedent but can have potentially devastating effects.

Space weather is one such event, and building resilience to potential extreme impacts is an initiative of the Commonwealth Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM), established in 2014 by the National Science and Technology Council. It remains an ongoing priority for the task force. .

From 2017 to 2022, I co-chaired this group to develop and implement a national space weather strategy and action plan to guide coordinated efforts between government, the research community, and infrastructure owners and operators. I was tasked with doing that. These implementation efforts, which focused on protecting critical infrastructure and sharing information, certainly helped prepare for the space weather event that occurred this past weekend.

Focus areas of the SWORM program’s efforts include the need to link space weather science to infrastructure risk mitigation efforts, the need to strengthen space weather forecasting capabilities, and the importance of international cooperation in the space weather field.

Preparedness efforts are recognized as critical to improving response and recovery capacity and mitigating impacts. These activities were helpful before the recent storms because storm forecasts were widely distributed to emergency managers and continuity professionals, many of whom relied on them to plan and enhance preparedness. .

This solar storm produced a light show rather than widespread impact on critical systems, but this is no excuse for complacency. There is always a great deal of uncertainty in the reality of low-probability, high-consequence events, and the next significant geomagnetic storm could have even larger effects. Providers of critical capabilities must remain vigilant.

And while last weekend’s events were caused by solar activity, future incidents could also be man-made and caused by weaponized electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks caused by high-altitude nuclear detonations. be. Concerns about EMP were heightened earlier this year when information was released that Russian President Vladimir Putin was saber-rattling about using tactical nuclear weapons in space. How seriously to take the risk of an EMP event has been an active policy debate for more than two decades.

However, there is bipartisan consensus that there is a link between building resilience to anthropogenic EMP events and naturally occurring geomagnetic events, and mitigation efforts have some degree of dual use. This is helpful given the hybrid risk world we live in. Dual-use mitigation efforts should remain a priority for resilience.

Among the ongoing efforts are efforts to improve the science of the effects of geomagnetic activity on the ground, including permanent damage to pipelines, and the power grids and operational technologies that power communications and transportation. , including efforts to translate that science into more powerful infrastructure designs. Do your best.

Financial incentives must be introduced to invest in resilience by design to protect communities from the impacts of space weather. We can also learn from this solar storm and improve public risk communication with the wide range of entities that operate our critical infrastructure, including energy, communications and emergency services. These organizations do not necessarily have continuing programs connected to NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center. or functions that rely on formal membership-driven information sharing channels, such as the Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC).

Governments should also consider formally designating space infrastructure as a critical infrastructure sector. This will bring increased attention to the resilience of satellite systems, both in space and on the ground, and create opportunities for stronger public-private partnerships with major space service providers. Biden did not do so in NSM 22, but left open the possibility that that could change in the future as the president requested recommendations from agencies on improving infrastructure protections. The risks posed by space weather events are a compelling reason for that designation.

The dazzling Northern Lights should serve as a reminder of the sun’s power to potentially wreak havoc on the critical systems we rely on. We must remain focused on building resilience to natural and man-made space activities.