Israel is at an impasse. Once again, the lofty words of our country’s leadership, such as “complete victory,” do not convince the Israelis. Almost two-thirds (62%) of Israelis believe that an outright victory is impossible, according to a poll by Mano Geva of Midgam Research & Consulting. A new survey by the Jewish People’s Policy Institute (JPPI) also found that Israeli Jews’ confidence in victory has halved, from 74% in October to 38% in May. Who is to blame for losing faith in victory?
After extensive and successful initial military operations, Israel was paralyzed. The White House announced that Israel had already moved to “low-intensity” combat at the end of November, and within weeks this became true in the eyes of Israelis as well. For about half of the war, Israel has been reducing military pressure on its enemies. During this period, there were not only no noticeable achievements, but also no movement on the ground. Hostages will not be released. Residents are not returning to their homes in the north. The humiliating blow to Israel’s “safety belt” in Upper Galilee continues, but we have withdrawn.
While we operate at “low intensity,” the wars waged by our enemies against us rage on and on, creating a political tsunami that ostracizes us and on the front lines of international law. A dangerous deterioration of the situation could make everything worse. Israeli soldiers are vulnerable to the whims of political interests in most countries around the world. Tensions in Israel are dangerously high, and a senior reporter for Haaretz newspaper recently let go of his restraints, saying: Somehow. “
And the passage of time has awakened the sleeping demon. It is anti-Semitism that is unstoppable even in America, a city on a hill. It is aimed not only at Israel, but also at the Jewish diaspora, whose homeland is beginning to crumble.
Israel’s leaders, existing or replacing them, will need to make courageous decisions quickly on two fronts.
Firstly, it is an international stage. The time has come to decide whether to follow or defy foreign orders, especially those of the Biden administration, which has no doubts about its full support for Israel. Current attempts to walk the tightrope are a total failure.
Significant results might have been achieved if Israel had decided to cooperate fully with Washington in a coordinated response to, say, an Iranian attack.
Once the war ended, the hostages were supposed to be able to return home, and the people of the north were supposed to be able to return to their hometowns. At least if Israel had been prepared to declare its intention to recognize a Palestinian government in Gaza along with complete military demobilization, it could have achieved significant strategic benefits through normalization with Saudi Arabia. All of these may have had a positive impact on Israel’s standing in the world.
Conversely, if Israel had decided not to accede to American demands, victory could have been declared through the dismantling of Hamas as a functioning organizational framework, and the story of the occupation of Rafah might have ended long ago. Israel could have ended the war months ago and quelled the flames scorching us on the international stage. Admittedly, it is impossible to know whether such measures improved or worsened the chances of a hostage’s return, an important consideration, but a lack of determination certainly harms the hostage. The hostages were kept in captivity, weakened, and died.
Israel has not yet made any major decisions in the war
However, because Israel did not make the decision, it did not benefit from either option and absorbed the high costs of both.
The second front, the domestic sphere: The prime minister refrained from deciding on the composition of a government that would lead Israel through one of its most difficult times. He wants to maintain a coalition whose members are characterized by a contrary reading of reality. Like Gulliver, he is caught up in a tangle of competing interests. Therefore, in order to maintain the stability of the coalition, he avoided a decision regarding Rafah for several months.
But this is the important point. The costs of indecision are both external and domestic. Israel is not being led and is losing important assets that are essential to the future of all of us. What is perceived as “carefulness” in navigating the waves of complex situations is actually decision-making paralysis that only makes the situation worse. The prime minister’s lofty words, even when uttered with fierce stares and loud voices, cannot change reality. The Israelites are clearly aware of this, and their faith in victory is waning.
This is not an order of fate. Leadership has to come to their senses and make a decision. As time passes and it becomes clear that people are unwilling or unable to make a decision, demands for an election now become stronger. Too much is at stake.
The author is Director of the Jewish People’s Policy Institute (JPPI) and Professor Emeritus of Law at Bar-Ilan University.
