Opinion: The presidential election didn’t turn out the way I thought it would.

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When President Joe Biden announced he was running for re-election, I understood what his campaign strategy was and thought it was a smart path to victory. After the disruption caused by the coronavirus and the administration of former President Donald Trump, Biden will favor normalcy and a rise in good economic news. Mr. Trump will likely divide the Republican Party, and most in the party want someone like former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to be the nominee. Meanwhile, Trump’s united efforts to galvanize Democrats will allow Biden to focus on independent voters in battleground states who lost electoral votes to Trump in 2016 and to Biden in 2020. You can do it.

To be honest, none of it turned out the way I expected. Trump currently leads in nearly every battleground state, but behind those numbers are more troubling details. As someone who is concerned about the prospects for Trump’s second term, I think it’s best to be honest about the reality. I understand that polls are not always accurate, but in general they tend to underestimate President Trump’s support, not overestimate it. I doubt there are many shy Biden supporters in this country.

Mr. Biden has received little credit for the economy’s strong recovery for more than two years, with unemployment reaching a 54-year low in 2023 and rising only slightly since then. The changes here are drastic. According to a January NBC poll, when asked who voters trust more in terms of economic stimulus, Mr. Trump has a 22-point lead over Mr. Biden. This represents a 15-point increase in President Trump’s approval rating compared to the same poll in 2020. Perhaps this is because inflation is a much more prevalent problem than unemployment, affecting all Americans every day. Perhaps people’s views on the economy derive primarily from their broader attitudes toward candidates. But whatever the reason, this is a surprising reversal in the midst of a steady stream of good economic news.

On cultural issues, Biden and the Democratic Party benefit from opposing the Republican position on abortion. However, regarding another major cultural issue, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by 35 points when it comes to who can do a better job on immigration. And it’s doubtful that abortion will become such a big issue in the presidential election, given that Roe v. Wade put abortion as an issue for state governments rather than the federal government.

Perhaps the most worrying new trend for Democrats is that instead of becoming more united, the party is becoming more deeply divided over the Gaza war. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont said the outbreak of pro-Palestinian protests could be “Biden’s Vietnam,” as President Lyndon Johnson ran for re-election over public opposition to the 1968 war. He cited the specter of choosing not to. The analogy is far-fetched—the United States itself was sending hundreds of thousands of troops to Vietnam, and more were being drafted from college campuses every week. But there’s no denying that the party appears more openly divided than it has been in decades. Only 33% of Americans say they approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, drawing criticism from both those who think he is too weak and those who think he is too tough on Israel.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party appears to be united in support of Trump. The opposition he faced in the primaries has largely disappeared. And the trial against him continues to draw attention to him, infuriating members of his base who consider him a martyr. It may also help make him an object of sympathy among others who believe many of these trials are politically motivated. (In my opinion, that happens to be true; I doubt that the first two indictments were filed against a defendant named other than Donald Trump.) The majority of Americans believe that Trump received a fair trial. He reported that he was skeptical that he would be able to receive the award. CNN poll. (Trump has denied wrongdoing in all cases.)

And I’m not even talking about third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (or Cornel West or Jill Stein), who could steal votes from Biden.

Things may change. Polls suggest that voters could swing in Biden’s favor if Trump is convicted of a felony. The administration could achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and then a broader political settlement that gives political rights to the Palestinians and diplomatic relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. President Trump could be embroiled in some new scandal at any time. But the trend lines aren’t working in Biden’s favor. He needs to take bold and dramatic action to reverse these numbers, for example by taking the lead on asylum policy.

What bothers me the most is the question of who is who More capable. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 9 points, but in 2024, Trump will lead by 16 points. This 25-point change may reflect the public’s feeling that the president’s age affects his ability to govern. If so, there is little Biden can do to change that perception.