The United States has been engaging with China at a high level in recent months to stabilize bilateral relations, and is trying to create the conditions for that to happen. China is playing hard for the deal and wants to give the impression that the U.S. is leading the charge. Consistent with its “Middle Kingdom” complex, China wants to maintain psychological superiority in this diplomatic engagement.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China last month appears to be consistent with the US belief that China still has strong influence. But China believes instead that the US is using abusive language to compensate for its relative weakness.
Breaking away from wolf and warrior diplomacy
China believes its economy is facing challenges, that access to global markets and resources is critical to its economic health, and that the United States denies advanced technology and pressures European countries. They are aware that they are trying to slow down China’s progress by doing so. yes. The change in attitude from wolf-warrior diplomacy to a more friendly attitude is a tactical move by Xi Jinping. The basics of China’s domestic and foreign policies have not changed.
China continues to threaten Taiwan with military action. Despite strengthening its defense ties with the United States, it has not backed away from violating the Philippines’ sovereignty in the South China Sea. Its economic strategy remains focused on controlling selected critical raw materials and technologies, thereby ensuring that other countries continue to rely on them. China also uses its huge industrial capacity to overproduce products and dump them onto international markets to beat out competition.
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The US and Europe don’t know how to control this huge manufacturing industry. The United States cannot impose something like the 1985 Plaza Accord with Japan on China. This is because, unlike Japan, China does not depend on the United States for its security. The World Trade Organization (WTO) also cannot be used to control China. The absurdity is that China still identifies itself as a developing country in trade bodies.
From “decoupling” to “risk avoidance”
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the risks of over-reliance on China in some critical sectors, and the need to decouple from China and develop alternative, resilient and more reliable supply chains. This led to a discussion about. Domestic manufacturing, or the resurgence of domestic manufacturing, has become an urgent post-pandemic strategy, especially in the case of the United States, which lost much of its manufacturing footprint as companies moved production facilities to lower-cost China. In any case, Trump had already begun this policy goal as part of his “America First” and “Make America Great Again” claims. The United States is now determined to develop its own semiconductor industry and green energy framework, offering incentives under the Chip Act and the Inflation Control Act.
The idea of ”decoupling” the US economy from the Chinese economy has now been abandoned. What we are currently talking about is “risk reduction”, which means reducing dependence in selected critical areas. The U.S. corporate sector has a significant stake in the Chinese market, and some companies face the risk of collapse if they withdraw from the Chinese market. There is a disconnect between the U.S. government’s geopolitical and security concerns about China’s rise as a powerful rival and the trade and financial interests of U.S. companies in China.
US domestic dynamics
Although the United States has an industrial policy, its system does not allow for state control over private sector market decisions. Because the United States, through the World Bank and others, has spent years promoting the market economy as a universal solution to economic growth. International Monetary Fund (IMF). The experience of bipartisan Congressional committees investigating the China threat is that corporate representatives appear to be less sensitive to this threat than the security establishment. This is illustrated by the flattering comments that 30 top US CEOs made when pandering to the Chinese president after meeting with him in late March of this year.
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Chinese people do not distinguish between “decoupling” and “risk avoidance” as concepts. This is because China sees this as a U.S. strategy to hinder China’s technological progress by denying the West access to cutting-edge technology. While China is concerned about U.S. regulations and pressure to follow Europe’s lead, China also says its dominance of solar panel and electric vehicle technology, for example, is forcing Western countries to recognize the reality and respond. I also have confidence. Regardless of the rhetoric of European leaders about unfair competition, state subsidies, and lack of access to the Chinese market, Chinese business companies appear to be systematically expanding into European markets.
contradictory policy
The United States’ strategy toward China appears contradictory. China is seen as a threat that is gaining pace beyond the situation in the Western Pacific, and its technological containment appears to be the preferred policy choice. Still, there is a desire for constructive dialogue, with a particular focus on resuming dialogue at the military level, in order to establish a degree of stability in the relationship, what the United States calls “guardrails.”
How can the United States square this circle against a China that is more nationalistic, increasingly militarily strong, and has a technological base more advanced than the West in some key areas? It’s not clear. Beijing is confident of its growing influence in international relations, and is already exerting influence in areas traditionally dominated by the United States, such as the United Nations.
Blinken has said in advance that he intends to come down hard on China on several issues of concern to the United States, including its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, potentially going so far as to impose sanctions if Beijing resists. It was announced that there is. Although China does not appear to be providing lethal aid to Russia, Blinken said China is a “top supplier” of machine tools, microelectronics and other munitions to Russia’s defense industrial base. It pointed out. He believed that Russia would have a hard time sustaining its attack on Ukraine without Chinese support.
buy time
He also used the media to send a harsh message to China in advance. wall street journal According to reports, Mr. Blinken told Wang Yi that the United States and its Allies are becoming increasingly impatient, and the United States has reportedly told them it is considering sanctions against Russia. Financial institutions and other entities in China.
It was against this somewhat murky backdrop that Mr. Blinken visited China late last month — “in response to an invitation,” to distinguish it from other visits by Treasury Secretary Yellen and others — and met not only with Mr. Xi Jinping but also with his own Treasury secretary. We had a meeting. This visit yielded no results. US-China relations are currently in a maintenance pattern, buying time for the US to regain lost strengths and for China to gain strengths to realize its aspirations.
(Kanwar Sibal served as foreign minister and ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France, and Russia, and deputy minister in Washington.)
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.
