Returning to Arlington was a big goal for the Bears in 2024 after missing the conference tournament for the first time in program history last year. In mid-April, that didn’t seem to matter to second-year head coach Mitch Thompson’s team. He sat at 9-7 in Big 12 play and was playing his best ball of the season.
Since then, the Bears have lost eight games in a row in conference play, followed by back-to-back blowout wins over the weekend. The importance of his final two weeks and how Baylor, currently No. 11, could backdoor a return to Arlington now that its hopes of making the Big 12 Tournament are in serious jeopardy. I will explain what you can do.
Most Likely Big 12 Tournament Scenario
big 12 conference
Big 12 standings heading into the final two weeks of the season.
Important remaining series across the Big 12 for final bid.
- May 10-12: Texas Tech @ No. 19 Oklahoma State
- May 10-12: Texas @ UCF
- May 10-12: Baylor @ No. 18 Oklahoma
- May 16-18: UCF @ Baylor
Possible scenarios for qualifying for the Big 12 Tournament
- Baylor has won 3 of their last 6 games, Texas Tech has lost 3 of their past 3 games.
- Baylor has won 3 of their last 6 games, UCF has lost 6 of their past 6 games.
- Baylor has won 4 of their last 6 games + Texas Tech has lost 2 of their last 3 games
- Baylor has won 4 of its past 6 games, UCF has lost 5 of its past 6 games.
The Big 12 announced that only 10 of its 13 schools will compete in the conference tournament as the conference adds four new members for the 2023-2024 athletic year. Freshmen Houston (6-17) and BYU (6-18) were pulled apart toward the bottom of the standings, leaving a number of teams vying for the 10th and final spot.
Technically, the Bears (9-15) could leapfrog Kansas State (13-11), Cincinnati (13-11), Kansas State (12-12) or TCU (13-14). It’s still possible, but it’s unlikely. They need to win at least five of the remaining six games.
Personally, the most likely scenario is that Texas Tech (12-15), which has lost six straight conference contests, will face the 19th-ranked Cowboys (15-9), who will compete for the venue this weekend in Stillwater. And it will be a huge defeat. The NCAA regional tournament will be held later this month.
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The Bears have lost eight games in a row in the conference and had back-to-back sweeps over the weekend.
Fortunately for the Bears, they defeated the Red Raiders in the series earlier this spring and held the tiebreaker. If Texas Tech gets swept, Baylor would need to go 3-3 against No. 18 Oklahoma (18-6) and UCF (11-12), but that’s not that realistic. .
But unless Baylor wins at least one game against the 18th-ranked Sooners in Norman, there’s a good chance they’ll be eliminated before the final weekend begins.
If Texas Tech beats the Cowboys, Baylor would need to go 4-2 against the Sooners and Knights, but that seems unlikely given the way the Bears are playing. Ideally for Baylor, Texas Tech and UCF would win this weekend against No. 19 Oklahoma State and Texas, respectively.
Other long-term scenarios include UCF losing five or more of its final six games to Texas (15-9) and Baylor. However, an important caveat for the Knights is that because the final game of their series against Houston was canceled, they will end conference play with 29 games instead of 30, meaning their final record will be determined by winning percentage. .
After this weekend’s series against No. 18 Oklahoma, Thompson’s team will have a good idea of ​​what they have to do heading into the final series of the season against UCF. Whether that puts more pressure on the Bears remains to be seen, but either way. should It’s clear how many games they have to win to avoid missing out on a trip to Arlington for the second year in a row.
