jeffries on hindalco
Buy call, target price raised to Rs 810
Novelis’ Q4 EBITDA increased 28% year over year (+13% QoQ) and inline
Volumes increased 2% year-on-year and EBITDA/t rose 8% quarter-on-quarter to $540, the highest in seven quarters.
Demand for beverage cans is picking up, and the company’s earnings outlook is improving
Increase EPS by 2-3% in FY25-26
EV/EBITDA for FY25E is 6.1x, a reasonable evaluation
Hindalco CLSA
Buy call, target Rs 770
Novelis’ profitability exceeds guidance, but sales volume growth is slow
Novelis is considering further measures to improve profit margins, such as price revisions
The key to improving profit margins is improving recycling content and operational efficiency.
Capital expenditures are estimated at $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion
Capital expenditures may increase leverage, but may remain below 3x
Debt reduction is seasonal
City on Guji Gas
Sell ​​call, target Rs 450
Fourth quarter was weaker than expected, with EBITDA up 48% sequentially but 20% below expectations
The fourth quarter is likely to be a near-term peak in Co’s earnings.
Rising LNG prices due to falling propane prices may impact profit margins and production volume
The PER for FY2016 is unreasonably high at 26 times, and the PER of other companies in the same industry is 12 to 13 times.
Jeffries talks about Godrej’s shortcomings
Buy call, target Rs 1,520
Fourth quarter exceeded expectations, LFL EBITDA increased 18%
Key benefits include increased volume of HSD and industry-leading soaps
Double-digit sales growth in emerging categories
Strong traction in Indonesia and good EBITDA in GAUM despite currency headwinds
Considering the long winter, weak HI was an important damper.
Further efforts here (LV launch) should help
GS on the cons of Godrej
Purchase, TP Rs 1425
Sector-leading sales volume growth continues in India
strong console. EBITDA and PAT growth
India delivers strong volume growth despite weak HI season
RCCL brand grew 22% year over year, integration completed
Indonesia’s growth accelerates and profit margins expand healthily
City on Marico
Buy call, target raised to Rs 610
Q4 inline.Distribution initiatives, pricing actions that drive growth
Trajectory expected to improve in FY25 due to accelerating volume growth
Trajectory expected to improve in FY25 due to price-led growth
The company will implement a 6% price increase with Parachute in April 2024
We believe that continued focus on NPD/innovation should drive overall growth
Strong growth in international business should also accelerate overall growth
Marico’s CLSA
Sell ​​call, target Rs 460
Volume growth and value growth were subdued in the second quarter.Improving profit margin
Profit margins continue to improve, but the question is whether this comes at the expense of growth.
Distribution expansion through Project Setu
Core categories continue to face structural problems
Mariko’s GS
Purchase, TP Rs 610
4Q console. EBITDA increased 12% YoY due to EBITDA margin expansion of 190bps YoY
Volume and price trends also clearly improved.
Compared to declines in the past few quarters, volume growth improved to 3% and revenue increased 2% year-over-year.
lupine nomura
Buy call, target Rs 1,949
Fourth quarter EBITDA exceeded expectations by 8%
The company expects FY25 to be even stronger due to growth across key regions
The company expects FY2025 to be even stronger due to improved EBITDA margins.
We believe that product launches in the U.S. may result in upside potential to current profit forecasts.
If costs are tightly constrained, current profit forecasts may be exceeded.
The stock is currently trading at Rs 54.1/70.9 with FY25/26 EPS 31.1x/23.7x.
Titagarh Railway MS
OW, TP starting Rs 1285
Sees strong evidence that Indian railways are making a comeback and believes Titagarh is a big beneficiary
View cargo as a cash cow and passenger business as a new growth engine
Forecasting strong revenue CAGR of 28% (24-27 quarter)
Freight car run: 1,000 units/month, F25-F27e (F24e: 780).
Pax coach runs: 26, 76, 96 coaches/quarter. F25e, F26e, F27e (F24e: 7)
