For more than three decades, Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei’s rule has deeply shaped Iran, casting a shadow that evokes the darkest days of its storied past. His leadership is often compared to that of the repressive Fat Ali Shah Qajar (who ruled from 1797 to 1834, bringing the country to the brink of government collapse), but it also hindered the country’s progress. It is characterized by harsh authoritarianism and extensive repressive policies. And possibility. Under Khamenei’s iron-fisted rule, Iran not only regressed in terms of political freedom and social justice, but also fell into deep international isolation.
This era, characterized by harsh repression of dissent and an aggressive foreign policy, reflected the decline seen under some of the most autocratic rulers of the Qajar dynasty, stifled innovation and It is embedded with a legacy of erosion of civil liberties. Khamenei’s tenure effectively reversed much of the progress Iran had previously made toward modernization and global integration, plunging the country into a period of economic stagnation and cultural insularity, and decades of progress. There is a risk of ruining it.
Under Khamenei, Iran experienced an astonishing tightening of state control and severe restrictions on individual freedoms unprecedented in modern history. Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime, which rules with a mixture of ignorance and superstition, is reminiscent of a historical period marked by stagnation and authoritarian excesses.
His leadership systematically undermined judicial independence, ignored the rule of law, and created a sociopolitical environment rife with corruption and inefficiency. This relentless pursuit of power at all costs has led not only to economic mismanagement but also to significant environmental degradation, undermining the country’s natural resources and public health.
Moreover, under Khamenei’s watch, critical infrastructure has aged and essential services have fallen into disrepair, exacerbating the hardships faced by ordinary Iranians. The regime’s policies prioritize ideological conformity and regime stability over economic rationality and environmental management, resulting in widespread economic inequality and ecological crisis.
This legacy of despotism and corruption has not only isolated Iran on the world stage, but also deeply alienated the Iranian regime from its own people, setting the stage for ongoing social unrest and potential upheaval.
Use of state propaganda
Khamenei’s regime skillfully uses state propaganda to smear its predecessor, cover up its own failures, and thereby shape public perception. By systematically demonizing the Pahlavi dynasty and other historical figures, the regime seeks to direct public discontent away from current misgovernment and toward artificial enemies of the past. The narrative structure portrays Khamenei’s leadership as a necessary bulwark of stability and moral governance in the supposedly turbulent circumstances of the previous regime.
However, this strategy is starting to backfire in a big way. A growing number of Iranians, especially the younger generation, are beginning to question the narratives being told through official channels. The internet and global connectivity have exposed them to alternative perspectives on history and modern governance, and a sense of nostalgia for what they perceive as a more progressive and less repressive era before Khamenei came to power. Senses were developed.
Young people in particular are disillusioned with the regime’s stagnation and decline, as dissatisfaction with economic conditions, social restrictions, and political repression grows. This disconnect between depictions of the past and people’s actual experiences undermines the effectiveness of that propaganda and sets the stage for heightened social tensions and potential demands for significant change.
The true cost of Khamenei’s rule is clear from the immense suffering endured by the Iranian people. His regime’s relentless repression of all forms of dissent has led to gross human rights violations. From the brutal crackdown on the Green Movement in 2009 to the violent crackdown on nationwide protests in recent years, Khamenei’s government has consistently shown flagrant disregard for human life and freedom.
Under his direction, the judiciary, which has become a de facto arm of the government, routinely hands out severe punishments without fair trial procedures, and those who dare to speak out are often subject to long prison sentences. They face imprisonment and even the death penalty.
Iranian prisons are notorious for their deplorable conditions, overflowing with political prisoners, journalists, activists, and even civilians caught up in the regime’s sweeping sweeps.
Under Khamenei’s rule, Iran’s economy experienced a sharp decline, entering a downward spiral exacerbated by systemic corruption and gross mismanagement. While international sanctions are certainly putting a strain on the economy, much of the damage can be directly attributed to the regime’s own policies.
The government has consistently prioritized military spending and funding proxy wars over critical domestic needs such as health care, education, and infrastructure. This misallocation of resources not only stunted economic growth but also disrupted Iran’s infrastructure.
Moreover, Khamenei’s policies have wreaked havoc on the environment, causing severe water shortages, severe air and water pollution, and land degradation, threatening the country’s agricultural sector and food security. These environmental problems further exacerbate the economic hardships faced by the Iranian people, making daily survival increasingly difficult. The regime’s failure to address these pressing issues, coupled with its repressive governance, will only fuel public discontent and despair, setting the stage for continued social unrest and further destabilizing the country. It’s progressing.
Khamenei’s foreign policy has significantly distanced Iran from much of the international community. His unwavering support for proxy wars across the Middle East and the Islamic Republic’s hardline military posture in strategic international waters such as the Strait of Hormuz have led to heightened tensions with world powers. These actions triggered a series of international sanctions and deepened Iran’s diplomatic isolation.
As a result, Iran has had fewer opportunities for economic development, strained diplomatic relations, and been portrayed as a pariah state.
This isolation is perpetuated as it strengthens the regime’s external threat narrative and uses it to justify harsh domestic policies and continued military spending. The lack of a strong global partnership will not only hinder Iran’s economic prospects, but also limit its diplomatic maneuverability and further exacerbate Iran’s international isolation.
As Ayatollah Khamenei ages, the question of his successor looms, increasing uncertainty over Iran’s future. The possibility that his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, will succeed him has raised serious concerns for those inside and outside Iran who want a transition to reform and openness.
Mojtaba is seen by many as potentially more hardline than his father, and could continue or even strengthen the current government’s repressive policies.
The outlook raises concerns that authoritarianism could persist, closing off hopes for democratic progress and softening of foreign policy. A potential transition is fraught with the potential for infighting and conflict, as various factions within the government and military vie for influence. Such a scenario suggests that regime collapse, whether it occurs in the near future or in the more distant future, would be accompanied by a trail of chaos and violence, potentially plunging the country into a deeper crisis. ing.
The dark years of Khamenei’s rule will likely be remembered as a period marked by harsh repression, severe economic hardship, and intense social unrest. His legacy will be that of a ruler who, under the guise of religious and ideological justice, severely restricted individual freedom and led to the ruin of a nation.
As Iran teeters on the brink of potential cataclysm, both the Iranian people and the international community are watching closely, hoping for a regime transition that will result in a government that respects human rights and the dignity of its people.
The road to recovery and reform is undoubtedly long and full of obstacles. But it remains an important and necessary journey to restore Iran to a state of peace, prosperity and international respect.
This journey will require not only domestic engagement but also international support to foster a future in which Iran can reintegrate into the international community and realize its rich potential unhindered by repressive governance.
The author is a Washington-based counterterrorism analyst and Middle East researcher with a particular focus on Iran and regional ethnic conflicts. His new book is The Black Shabbat, published in the United States. You can follow him at erfanfard.com and X @EQFARD.
