After much media speculation, the Congress party finally announced its candidates for Amethi and Raebareli constituencies on the last day of nominations. This has been a mix of good and bad news for Congress leaders and their supporters in Uttar Pradesh.
While Rahul Gandhi has opted to contest from Raebareli, Kishori Lal Sharma, a family friend of Gandhi, will contest for the Amethi seat. Priyanka Gandhi did not participate in the contest and chose to focus on campaigning nationally.
There was considerable pressure on the Gandhi brothers from the local UP forces to contest from both the constituencies. The fear was that with Amethi not contesting, Smriti Irani would easily win the seat.
Congressional leaders’ disappointment
Amethi and Raebareli are strongholds of the Congress and the Gandhi family. Not contesting that is a tacit admission that Amethi is no longer a safe bet.
Local legislators were hoping that the brother-sister contest would improve the Congress’ chances of winning in the remaining 15 seats in alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP). But their decision disappointed some Congressional officials.
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The work of local candidate Kishori Lal Sharma must be commended. He is familiar with the constituency and is popular as a Brahmin, consistent with the party’s strategy to win back traditional support from upper castes, tribals, Dalits and Muslims.
Politically, the move provided the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with ammunition to target the Gandhi family and the Congress. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already criticized the Congress’ move and used it as fodder for attacks during election rallies. Union Home Minister Amit Shah also questioned Rahul Gandhi’s numerous appointments and highlighted his shift from Amethi to Wayanad and now to Raebareli.
what the numbers show
Rahul Gandhi has represented the Amethi seat since 2004, only losing it to Smriti Irani in 2019. He currently represents Wayanad constituency in Kerala.
According to NDTV data centre, the Congress won Amethi in 15 out of 18 votes and Raebareli in 17 out of 20 votes. The latter was traditionally owned by Sonia Gandhi and is considered a pocket district of the Gandhi-Nehru family.
The Congress party’s organization in Raebareli is stronger than in Amethi. The BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh is not considered a major rival to Rahul here.
In terms of electoral performance, Rahul Gandhi received 46% of the votes in Amethi in 2014, which declined to 43% in 2019. In Raebareli, Sonia Gandhi had consistently secured 55-56 per cent vote share in recent elections.
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In the 2022 assembly elections, the SP and its allies won four out of five seats, with the BJP securing three seats and the SP securing two seats in Amethi. Given the current alliance between the Congress and the SP, Raebareli appears to be a safer bet.
Had Rahul contested against Amethi and lost again, his position within the Congress party would have weakened. Perhaps this is why Rahul took a pragmatic rather than emotional decision and chose a safer seat. Additionally, he has lost touch with his constituency.
However, Priyanka could have challenged Smriti from Amethi, which could have kept party leaders motivated and sent a strong message to the state and the Hindi heartland.
Did your actions backfire?
The Congress may want to convey the message that any senior party official or employee can secure a party ticket, with the aim of deflecting suspicions of dynastic politics. According to some reports, Rahul is keen to retain the Wayanad seat citing the warm reception from voters and his success in the 2019 Wayanad elections. If Rahul wins, it could vacate his seat and lead to a contest for Priyanka’s seat.
However, the BJP has won important SP seats such as Rampur and Azamgarh in the by-polls, and the Congress needs to carefully consider this fact. If Priyanka is ultimately fielded as the candidate representing her constituency, why shouldn’t she be fielded in this election itself instead of waiting for a by-poll? Had she been fielded from Raebareli, the Bharatiya Janata Party might not have had the ammunition to attack Rahul on charges such as:Bagomat“With Prime Minister Modi”Reboot” by Shah.
Every strategic move has advantages and disadvantages. Whether this decision was a huge success or a failure will only become clear after the June 4 poll results.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his previous avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.
