- Written by Henry Zeffman
- chief political correspondent
I would like to introduce two views on the results of local elections.
Firstly, with some limited exceptions, the results have been quite disastrous for the Conservatives and point to Labor’s path to victory in the general election.
Secondly, speaking to Conservative MPs, advisers and officials, the threat to Rishi Sunak’s leadership appears to be rapidly fading.
For some, it’s a paradox. Results so far show the Conservatives are headed for defeat under Mr Sunak’s leadership.
So why not change the leader? However, only two members of parliament have so far publicly called for a change in leadership, and no new members have joined the rebel group as a result of these results.
For another group of Conservative MPs, the prospect of ousting yet another leader in such a short period of time is too absurd to even mention.
Both sides agree that, as things stand, the possibility of a challenge to the prime minister’s authority is receding.
“He will survive,” one disgruntled rebel declared shortly after Ben Houchen’s victory in the Tees Valley mayoral election was confirmed.
This victory for the Mayor, and what is generally expected to be a Conservative victory in the West Midlands tomorrow, should not be psychologically underestimated by MPs.
“We need something positive to point out,” a senior member of Mr Sunak said as the tally began on Thursday. “Without a positive outcome, everything becomes pretty messy.”
After a morning of unrelenting gloom, Tees Valley became a totem of positivity. No wonder Mr Sunak rushed there for the event with Lord Houchen.
For some, this is puzzling.
Although from a very high starting point, Lord Houchen’s votes declined significantly. If this fluctuation were to be replicated in the general election, it would indeed make all Conservative MPs in the region very nervous.
But politics is psychology as well as psychology. It is painful for MPs to see popular, independent-minded local incumbents bucking national trends, and MPs who believe they have a strong personal vote, even with little academic evidence. There are some too.
“What we’ve noticed from some of the parliamentary results, not just the mayoral race, is that those who have been able to build personal connections and personal brands with voters are outperforming this trend,” one minister said. Told.
“People look at that and think if I do everything I might be able to tolerate it. That may or may not be true, but that’s how they interpret it.”
To be clear, most Conservatives remain very pessimistic about the party’s prospects in the general election.
One influential Tory explained why it was now, given that they believed Mr Sunak had “nearly zero chance” of being challenged, saying the result meant “we “This confirms that we are well on our way to stamping out the virus,” he said, but said it was not an “extinction-level” event. .
Not everyone completely rules out that Mr. Sunak could be a threat.
One minister said there had been “relative silence” on the airwaves as well as in some of the party’s notorious WhatsApp groups, suggesting many were still adopting a “wait-and-see approach”. He said it was suggested.
The minister added, “Even though things may be calm right after the results are released, things often move quickly.”
Meanwhile, Labor has publicly stated that it is very happy not only with the overnight result, but also with the way the debate within the Conservative Party has developed.
“If they want to tease that the mayoral election result should keep Rishi Sunak in office, then they can be our guests,” said one Labor leader.
