But let’s be frank. The provision of a large aid package by the United States means a continuation of this bloody war of attrition, not an end to it. This is a psychological breakthrough for Kiev and a setback for Moscow, but whether decisive changes occur on the battlefield will depend on how Ukraine uses American weapons, especially in occupied Crimea. will depend on the ability to jeopardize Russian positions in the US.
A potential game-changer in the conflict is the new ATACM-300 intermediate-range missile. These precision weapons will allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian-occupied territories in Crimea, Donbass and coastal areas, and to attack Russian airfields, supply depots, staging areas and command and control centers inside Ukraine. .
ATACMS “will worsen Russian logistics inside Ukraine in the short term,” a senior government official said on Tuesday. “In the long term, Russia will need to rethink its strategy.” That may eventually pave the way for a just negotiated peace.
Russian analysts recognize that Russia is losing momentum. Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at a think tank affiliated with the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that with the new U.S. aid, “Ukraine’s defense capabilities can be improved to some extent, and the same goes for the offensive side.” He added that on a “symbolic” level, US aid “will clearly boost the morale of the Ukrainian military.”
Another Moscow analyst, Vasily Kashin, warned of renewed military pressure on Russia. “Ukraine will have additional high-precision weapons that it will use against our military and territory.” He said new air defense weapons for Ukraine would “restrict the use of Russian aviation once again.” “Russian aviation has been attacking Ukrainian power plants and other targets almost at will in recent weeks,” he added.
The comments of two Russia experts were quoted this week on a Russian-language website called RTVI. They were translated by a retired Army brigadier general and sent to me on Tuesday. General Kevin Ryan, former military attaché in Moscow.
How quickly can new US weapons reach Ukraine? Former U.S. Ambassador to Kiev William B. Taylor Jr. said the Pentagon had pre-positioned ammunition and other supplies to southern Poland, and new supplies could arrive “in a matter of days.” I believe. Administration officials agree that some of the critical shells could even be delivered within hours, depending on how many trucks Ukraine can assemble.
Ukraine desperately lacks air defense systems, and here again Congressional action would reduce the likelihood of disaster. Protecting Ukraine’s skies is a complex issue because Ukraine has a mix of NATO and Soviet-era systems. Congressional action has enabled quick shipments of U.S. fighter interceptors, and the Biden administration is rushing to procure Soviet-made equipment from partner countries once allied with Moscow.
Ukraine’s weak air defenses will also be strengthened by the Pentagon’s FrankenSAM program, which converts Soviet-made launchers for use with U.S. surface-to-air missiles. The hybrid experiment was a success, a government official said.
Rather than rush into another counteroffensive against Ukraine, as in last year’s abortive push into the Sea of Azov, U.S. officials are urging Ukraine to use new military aid to shore up its front and continue to fight for the remainder of 2024. I ask you to hold on tight. “We need them to step up this year so they can take back territory next year,” a senior government official said.
Russian analysts have warned that Ukraine is not on the verge of collapse despite recent problems. “In fact… there were no failures on the front, no major cities or even small cities were abandoned; Ukrainian military personnel did not surrender en masse, etc.,” the RTVI commentary said, adding that Ukraine had “a significant number of He added that there are “reservists.”
“Russians are just as tired and demoralized as Ukrainians,” Taylor argued. Moscow and Kiev are both abuzz with rumors of a major Russian attack, but Taylor is skeptical. “If Russia had the ability to break through, they would have done it” while U.S. aid was delayed for months, he said.
Ukraine’s model of resistance is Finland, which fought Russian domination for 75 years before finally joining NATO last year. The story is told in a new Russian and English translation of a book titled “How Finland Survived Stalin,” which is avidly read in Moscow, said Mikko Hautala, Finland’s ambassador to Washington. It is said that there is
Joseph Stalin thought he could take over Finland just as Vladimir Putin believed he could take over Ukraine. Each, he believed, was faced not with a real country but with the reconquest of the wayward remnants of the Russian Empire. To paraphrase one sentence from this book: “What is Ukraine’s idea?” To survive.
Thanks to President Biden and a strong bipartisan majority in Congress, and above all thanks to the Ukrainians who fought through their darkest hours, possibly hundreds of thousands of casualties, the survival of an independent Ukraine is possible. It looks more certain today than it has in a week. Before.
